Wes Streeting resigns and prepares to trigger a leadership contest he might not win

This article first appeared as part of the Daily Sensemaker newsletter – one story a day to make sense of the world. To receive it in your inbox, featuring content exclusive to the newsletter, sign up for free here.

Wes Streeting has resigned as health secretary. While he stopped short of launching a leadership contest, it may only be a matter of time before he tries to oust Keir Starmer from No 10.

So what? Supporters of Streeting expect him to challenge Starmer for the Labour leadership as soon as today. This follows a brisk meeting between the pair at Downing Street yesterday morning. Streeting’s reported plan would

• •

  fire the starting gun on a tussle to become the next PM;

• •

  send markets into overdrive in anticipation of a fractious contest; and

• •

  test the depth of support for a health secretary who faces a narrow path to victory.

On the brink. On Tuesday morning, Starmer defied rumours that he was about to step down by telling a divided cabinet that he would not quit without a leadership contest. Despite four ministerial resignations, the prime minister’s allies were ebullient as day turned to night without the appearance of a formal challenge. One told the BBC: “I think we’ve seen off Wes.”

Spoke too soon. Wednesday opened with calm markets and preparations for the King’s Speech, in which Charles lays out the government’s programme of legislation. This one was dense, comprising 37 bills that ranged from national security and digital ID to police reform.

Spare me. But most of the detail was lost due to chatter about a 16-minute meeting that had taken place between Starmer and Streeting earlier in the day. Soon after the tête-à-tête, it was reported that Streeting was planning to resign and challenge the prime minister.

Having fun with it. All of this drama was grist for the mill for opposition MPs responding to the King’s Speech in parliament. Kemi Badenoch, the Conservative leader, told Starmer he was “in office, but not in power”. Streeting sat eight seats away from the prime minister as she said this.

The next episode. Streeting, who is on the right of the party, needs the support of 81 MPs to trigger a leadership contest. More than 90 have called for Starmer to quit, but they don’t all back Streeting. If a contest is triggered, others can join the race if they get the numbers.

To note: Because there are 403 Labour MPs and they can only support one candidate at a time, this effectively puts a limit on the number of challengers.

And then? The winner is chosen directly by party members and affiliated trade union supporters, whose unions called for a new leader yesterday. If a candidate secures more than 50% of first preference votes, they win. If this threshold isn’t reached, the last candidate is eliminated and the second preference votes of their supporters are redistributed.

Is this unprecedented? Yes. In Labour’s 126-year history, there has never been an official leadership challenge launched against a sitting prime minister.

Have a go then. Starmer would automatically be on the ballot without any need to gather nominations, so he could remain as prime minister if he fights and wins the leadership contest.

Absurd outcomes. In a three-way race with one candidate from the left of the party and one for the right, it’s possible that Starmer would triumph on the basis of second preference votes.

A new challenger? Former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner has been boosted by HMRC clearing her of deliberate wrongdoing or carelessness regarding her underpaying stamp duty on a seaside flat. The affair led to her resignation from government last year. When asked about taking part in a leadership race, she told the Guardian, “I’ll play my part in doing everything we possibly can to deliver the change.”

What do members think? Not Streeting please. Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, is the top choice of 42% of party members, leading Angela Rayner and Streeting on 11% and Ed Miliband on 10%. Streeting is the fourth most popular candidate when first, second and third preferences are taken into account.

What does the public think? Pretty much the same. Burnham is in the top three preferences of more than a quarter of the British public, trailed by Rayner, Cooper and Streeting.

The problem is that Burnham isn’t an MP and is unlikely to become one quickly enough to gather the necessary supporters. His best chance will come if Starmer sets out his own timeline of departure, giving Burnham the opportunity to try to win a byelection in a vacated seat.

Which means that there is the prospect of Streeting becoming Labour leader and prime minister despite widespread public apathy and the preferred candidate not being in the race.

What’s more… Lest anyone forgets, Streeting had a direct association with Peter Mandelson, the former US ambassador whose appointment triggered this series of events in the first place.

Photograph by Toby Melville / POOL / AFP via Getty Images