Elbows up! Mark Carney woos Canada with hockey and Trump defiance

In the suburban city of Surrey, an hour-or-so from Vancouver, the red, barn-like building of the Cloverdale Agriplex, surrounded by flat expanses of berry and fruit farmland, is best-known for hosting rodeos, farm shows and agricultural fairs. But on a warm Wednesday evening as the sun sets, it has become a political arena ahead of Monday’s pivotal Canadian election.

“Look, we’re Canadians – we are not confrontational,” says Deirde Baird, a 59-year-old school ­counsellor, who is among 2,500 supporters who have come to see Mark Carney pitch for their votes. “But I think there is a real sense of there being an existential threat from the United States right now. So, let’s protect ourselves.”

Baird is sporting a T-shirt emblazoned with a hockey slogan, “Elbows Up”, that has become a national rallying cry since Trump began ­calling Canada America’s “51st state”. “I think a lot of people want a strong leader who can guide us through all this – the threats, the tariffs, the trade wars. And I feel like Mark Carney is the ­person who can do that; I think he has the right skills to pull it off.”

He is a former governor of two ­central banks and an outsider to ­electoral politics, but Carney appears to be enjoying himself, often riffing with hecklers during his rallies. At one event in Nova Scotia, after an audience member claimed Carney was a puppet of the World Economic Forum, he put a finger to an imaginary earpiece and joked he was waiting for his orders.

This buoyancy represents an extraordinary turnaround for Canada’s Liberal party, and one of the largest swings in Canadian ­polling history. When Justin Trudeau resigned in January, the opposition Conservatives were at 44% - a 24 point lead.

Under the leadership of Pierre Poilievre, the Conservatives ­captured public sentiment during the ­closing, unpopular years of Trudeau’s premiership. High inflation, a housing squeeze, sluggish economic growth and broad public pessimism towards the future direction of the country all fuelled his pitch.

Average house prices more than doubled during Trudeau’s near-decade in office, and the weekly food shop rose by close to 30% after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. In January, a survey by the Royal Bank of Canada found that 55% of respondents felt “financially ­paralysed” due to the soaring cost of living, an economic environment the Conservatives dubbed “Justinflation”.

“In the world of 2023 and 2024, he was able to express the anger and frustration that Canadians were ­feeling about the state of their lives,” says David Coletto, founder and CEO of Abacus Data, a polling firm in Ottawa. But the Conservative has struggled to adjust since Trump roiled the national mood and, with it, Canada’s electoral terrain.

“I think Pierre Poilievre was made for a moment [that is no longer here],” Coletto added. “He’s still got a following – let’s not underestimate his skill and his connection with a large number of Canadians. But it may not now be sufficient in order for him to win a government. The job that voters are hiring for has changed.”

Since Trump became US president, Conservative support has crumbled and the Liberals have soared as left-of-centre voters have switched from smaller parties to back Carney.

Going into Monday’s election, Carney’s party is on 42% with the Conservatives on 38%. If Poilievre has wavered in his criticism of the US president, Carney has anchored his campaign upon it, in language that would have been diplomatically unthinkable from a Canadian prime minister towards a US leader even a few weeks ago.

“He has betrayed Canada,” Carney tells the crowd in Surrey, to boos. “We didn’t ask for this fight,” Carney adds, repeating a well-worn, crowd-pleaser of a line: “The Americans, what they’re going to find out, is that in this trade war, just like in hockey: We. Will. Win.”

Election issues that seemed set in stone at the beginning of the year – the high cost of living and dearth of affordable housing in cities across the country – have not gone away, despite Trump’s dominance over the campaign. “It’s really hard when you’re a young person like me to see, you know, a future where I don’t know if I’m ever going to afford a home,” says Eugene Buikema, who is 22 and manages a nearby post office. “That is definitely top of mind.”

Despite that, Buikema is switching his vote. “Traditionally, I’m more of an NDP voter,” he says, referring to the left-leaning New Democratic party. “But I don’t really see them as a viable option in this election. So, I think that I have to vote strategically.”

This election has played out against a rare patriotic backdrop in Canada – where cancellation of travel to the US has soared, American wine, spirits and goods have been removed from shop shelves, and where snippets of Canada’s national anthem are broadcast over supermarket loudspeakers.

“I think it’s very important that we do not bow to Trump’s crazy personality, or let him bully us,” Buikema adds. “I love my country. And it feels good to see everyone sort of banding together to stand up for what is right.”