How close Iran was to a making a nuclear bomb

Just how close was Iran to possessing a nuclear bomb? “To be honest, nobody can answer this question,” said Saeid Golkar of the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change and an assistant professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Tennessee. “We know how much enriched uranium Iran has based on the IAEA report,” he said referring to the International Atomic Energy Agency’s publication last week. “What we really know is that the Islamic Republic has about 500kg of 60% enriched uranium. That’s the only thing we know for sure.”

Yet, enriched uranium alone is not enough. Turning it into a weapon requires additional stages: enriching it to 90%, forming a spherical core, fitting neutron triggers, explosive casings, miniaturisation for missile delivery — and testing. The final stage is hard to keep secret.

“Iran had enough raw materials to make several bombs,” said Dr Dina Esfandiary of the International Crisis Group. “It has delivery mechanisms, but it had made no progress in putting those raw materials into a bomb that could then be used.”

For Netanyahu, the existence of that capability has long justified action. He has warned of Iran’s nuclear ambitions for more than a decade.

“In 2011 Netanyahu pushed very hard for an attack on Iran. He was blocked back then,” said Professor Meir Litvak, director of the Alliance Centre for Iranian Studies at Tel Aviv University. “There was a coalition of the chief of staff, head of Mossad and head of security services. They opposed him vehemently and they forced him to retract,” referring to claims made in 2018 by former Israeli spy chief Tamir Pardo.

Now, Litvak suggests, the calculus has shifted. “Iran has enough uranium for more than one bomb. That's obvious,” he said. “But then there's the second stage, which is called weaponisation. This is something that until recently the Iranians did not do because this would be a clear violation of the Non-proliferation Treaty.”

Professor Litvak believes Iran has “not crossed the Rubicon of going nuclear”.

The IAEA’s report released last week – the agency’s harshest critique in over two decades – supports Litvak’s view while underscoring concerns.

So why attack now? “I think it’s very, very directly tied to the rounds of negotiation with the US,” said Professor Joseph Bahout, director of the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut.

Bahout believes that Trump gambled that the strikes might have put Iran in a negotiating position favourable to the US. “Trump also was not completely reluctant to see the Iranians taking a hit before going there… Although, I'm not sure that he was aware that the hit would be so devastating.”

“The Islamic Republic is in its weakest moment of history. You cannot find Iran in the last 46 years weaker than right now,” Golkar said. “The Shia militia and the axis of resistance has been undermined massively.”

For Dr Esfandiary, the reasons for Friday’s strikes are simple and less cynical. “Israel is drunk on success, basically. It has indeed succeeded in setting back Iran's regional ambitions, and its proxies, and it feels like now is the best time to do it.”

Photograph by Iranian Defence Ministry/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images