Plaid Cymru topples Labour in historic Caerphilly byelection victory

The centre-left party defeated Reform UK, which polls had put in first place, with 47% of the vote on the back of a record turnout for Senedd elections of 50.43%.

Lindsay Whittle, who has stood 13 times before this week’s byelection, used his victory speech to say that the “big parties need to sit up and take notice”. Plaid’s leader, Rhun ap Iorwerth, said it was “a reset for Welsh politics”.

Whittle also paid tribute to Hefin David, who was Welsh Labour’s Member of the Senedd for Caerphilly until his sudden death in August.

The south Wales valleys seat of Caerphilly has elected a Labour MP ever since it became a constituency in 1918. The party has also held the Senedd seat since 1999.

Although Labour had been widely expected to lose, last night’s result underscores the challenge the governing party faces as voters defect to parties both to the left and right. Many Labour MPs argue that No 10 is failing to appreciate the scale of disaffection among its more progressive voter base in the race to outflank Reform.

Eluned Morgan, Labour’s Welsh first minister, said canvassers “heard the frustration on the doorsteps in Caerphilly that the need to feel change in people’s lives has not been quick enough”. Lady Morgan added: “We are listening, we are learning the lessons and we will come back stronger.”

When the seat was last contested in 2021, Labour won 46% of the vote, Plaid came second with 28%, and Reform won less than 2%. Last night, Plaid polled 47%, Reform came second with 36%, while Labour was a distant third with just 11%. The Conservatives, on 2%, lost their deposit.

Pollster John Curtice said on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “It does suggest that Plaid are now well placed to provide Wales with its first next minister. Reform will be disappointed in coming second with 36%, but I don’t think we should run away with the idea that this, in any way, suggests that Nigel Farage’s bubble is burst.”

Despite that, reports on the ground suggested Farage had hightailed it before the results were in, with Plaid supporters joking that “Farage was halfway down the M4 on his way back to London,” according to Sky News.

Photograph by Andrew Matthews/PA Wire