Israel says Iran was months from a nuclear weapon. Others aren’t so sure

Iran said it could pull out of the international nuclear non-proliferation treaty in retaliation for ongoing strikes by Israel, which have wiped out much of its military chain-of-command but appear to have inflicted limited damage on its main strategic location.

So what? The power is in the threat. Tehran insists it has no plan to build nuclear weapons and its withdrawal from the NPT would likely lead to heavy punishment. But if Iran believes it can withstand the attacks on its atomic sites, the prospect that it could prevent international access to its nuclear programme may be the bargaining chip it needs.

Tick tock. Benjamin Netanyahu said on Friday that Israel’s attack on Iran was necessary to prevent a “nuclear holocaust”. But Iran has been seen as on the verge for decades.

• In 2012, Netanyahu brandished a cartoon of a bomb and told the UN Security Council that Iran was close to developing a nuclear weapon.
• In 2015, the US estimated Iran could produce enough fuel for a nuclear bomb within 12 months if it wanted.
• In 2021, that estimate shrank to just one month.

Stock check. No one doubts Iran possesses a large stockpile of enriched uranium, the fuel needed for nuclear bombs. Last week the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said that Iran had 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 per cent purity. This is just shy of weapons grade and considerably more than the 275 kilograms it had in early February.

In theory, Iran could convert this into enough enriched uranium for nine nuclear bombs “in three weeks” at its Fordow facility, according to the Institute for Science and International Security. Producing the fissile material needed for a single explosive could take “two to three days”.

Intentions. But this is different to creating an operational nuclear weapons programme, which requires warheads, neutron triggers, casings and tests to see if the final product works.

View from the experts. Naysan Rafati, an analyst at Crisis Group, told The Observer that it’s not clear whether Iran was “taking active steps toward weaponisation, which is the distinction between a serious but still potential threat and an active and immediate one”.

View from Tel Aviv. Benjamin Netanyahu insisted last week that Iran was just months away from building a nuclear bomb. The Israeli military said it had found intelligence showing “concrete progress” in the regime’s efforts to make the components needed for a weapon. Netanyahu’s critics say he attacked Iran to derail nuclear talks with the US.

View from DC. Three months ago Tulsi Gabbard, the director of US national intelligence, said American spies believe “Iran is not building a nuclear weapon”, despite growing its enriched uranium stockpile to a level “unprecedented” for a state without one. Yet Trump has offered tacit support for the strikes. On Monday night he wrote “IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON”, left the G7 summit early and warned residents to leave Tehran.

View from Tehran. Iran says that its nuclear programme is peaceful and it has never sought to build a weapon. The evidence suggests otherwise. In 2015 a lengthy IAEA investigation concluded Iran carried out tests “relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device” at secretive sites from the late 1980s until 2003.

Compromise. In 2009, the UK, US and France inspectors also discovered a covert enrichment plant at Fordow, near the city of Qom. Six years later, Iran struck a deal with the US and other powers capping its enrichment and stockpiling of uranium in return for sanctions relief. Fordow was turned into a non-nuclear research centre and most of its centrifuges removed.

Pull out. Trump withdrew from the accord in 2018. Iran subsequently ramped up its nuclear programme, including restarting uranium enrichment at Fordow.

On Thursday the IAEA said Iran had fallen foul of its nuclear obligations for the first time in 20 years by not fully opening its facilities to inspectors. It said it could not conclude Iran’s nuclear programme was “exclusively peaceful”.

Mount Doom. Israel cannot eliminate Iran’s nuclear programme without destroying Fordow, where much of its enriched uranium is believed to be stockpiled. The site is buried 90 metres beneath a mountain, protected by layers of rock and concrete. This puts it beyond the reach of the weapons Israel is known to possess and possibly even the biggest bunker-busting bombs produced by the US. Rafael Grossi, head of the IAEA, said there had so far been “no damage” to its underground facilities.

Tough targets. Israel has taken out many of Iran’s top generals and at least nine nuclear scientists. But if it fails to wipe out its atomic sites, it won’t meet its military objectives.

What’s more… For this it may need Trump in the fight. The WSJ reported yesterday that Iran had signalled via intermediaries that it was willing to resume nuclear discussions with the US as long as it stays out of the conflict. Israel called them “fake talks”.