Myanmar’s junta wants a general election in a country it barely controls

Gokteik viaduct, the highest bridge in Myanmar and once the tallest railway trestle bridge in the world, was damaged in fighting between the ruling military junta and rebel forces at the weekend.

So what? The broken bridge symbolises the damage done to a country that is embroiled in civil war, recovering from a deadly earthquake, and inexplicably heading to the polls. Last week the military junta announced a general election, which

• appears designed to entrench its power;
• risks bringing further violence to the country; and
• will attract international attention from China to Belarus.

Power of the powerless. The West hailed Aung San Suu Kyi’s election win in 2015 as a victory for democracy. A Nobel peace prize winner and former political prisoner, she became leader of Myanmar’s first civilian government since 1962.

Power tarnished. But her reputation was ruined when she oversaw a regime that locked up critics and defended Myanmar from genocide allegations against the Rohingya Muslims. This didn’t stop her party winning re-election in 2020.

It didn’t last long. Myanmar’s military disputed the results and launched a coup three months later. They arrested Aung San Suu Kyi and instituted a junta, whose response to pro-democracy protests killed more than 500 people in two months. The country descended into civil war.

Turning point. Rebel armies seized key areas of north Myanmar in 2023. Their success led to more repression by the military junta, which UN investigators have accused of beating, strangling, raping and electrocuting people in detention facilities. The regime’s grip on power today is severely weakened.

By the numbers:

21 per cent – proportion of Myanmar held by the junta, half as much as the 42 per cent controlled by rebel forces and ethnic armies

2,600 – rebel groups estimated to have participated in the conflict

3.6 million – people who have fled their homes since the coup, with thousands of civilians killed by the military

Disaster zone. This turmoil was compounded in March by two earthquakes that killed more than 3,800 people and left millions in need of immediate humanitarian assistance. The junta continued air strikes as rescuers tried to help.

Vote. Against this backdrop the regime has announced a general election due to take place in December, the first vote since it took power. The military chief has invited representatives from Belarus to be observers.

Backlash. The involvement of Europe’s last dictatorship suggests it won’t be free or fair. The junta dissolved dozens of political parties in 2023 and there are fears it will use violence to get the result it wants. Last month it imposed a law threatening the death penalty against anyone who disrupts elections.

What Xi is thinking. Beijing endorsed the vote and has a vested interest in Myanmar’s stability. It provides military equipment to the junta, but has hedged its bets by also maintaining ties with Aung San Suu Kyi’s party. In any case the ongoing civil war damages China, which

• borders Myanmar to the north;
• uses it as a key access point to the Indian Ocean; and
• got three-quarters of its rare earth imports from Myanmar before the coup.

View from elsewhere. The election also matters to the West, which may see its dreams of democracy in Myanmar dashed for good while being asked to pick up the pieces. Any escalation in the conflict will place more pressure on the international aid community.

What’s more… Humanitarian operations in Myanmar are already badly underfunded. The UN has only received 12 per cent of the money it needs to provide life-saving assistance in the country. No national election, however fair, will fix this.