Syria may have been given a future

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Donald Trump had a surprise meeting with Ahmed al-Sharaa in Saudi Arabia yesterday, becoming the first US president to meet a Syrian leader in 25 years. Trump described him as a “tough guy” with a “strong past”.

So what? That is an understatement. Sharaa’s photo-op with Trump caps a remarkable transformation for a man who had a $10 million US bounty on his head until December, when his fighters toppled the Assad regime. The handshake followed Trump’s announcement a day earlier that he was lifting sanctions on Syria to “give them a chance at greatness”. This could

• provide a lifeline to Syria’s devastated economy by opening the door for reconstruction funds to flow from the Gulf, Turkey and the US;
• enable international organisations to help seek justice for Assad-era crimes; and in turn
• bring stability to a country still feeling the aftershocks of the past 53 years.

Wait and see. The State Department welcomed Assad’s downfall but was unsure how to respond to the new government. Sharaa’s past includes battling US troops as a jihadist fighter in Iraq linked to al-Qaeda. He later pledged loyalty to the Islamic State as an insurgent leader in Syria, before breaking ties with both groups.

PR drive. Sharaa has worked hard to shake off the vestiges of his past, dropping his nom de guerre, trimming his previously unkempt beard and donning sharp business suits for meetings with world leaders. In five months of careful diplomacy, he has floated the idea of democracy in Syria, promised to govern inclusively, and pledged protection for religious and ethnic minorities.

Hold up. But he has also centralised power, appointed hardened foreign fighters to key positions, refused to rule out imposing Sharia law and failed to outline a specific timetable for elections.

Not everyone is happy. In March, fighters allied to Sharaa killed roughly 1,600 people in a coastal region that once served as Assad’s heartland. Most of those killed were Alawites, the group to which Assad belongs. The bloodshed, triggered by attacks on government forces, was the biggest sign yet that the president does not have complete control over his broad coalition.

View from Tel Aviv. After Assad’s fall, Israel occupied a chunk of southern Syria as a buffer between itself and the new regime. Last week, Israeli jets hit targets near the presidential palace as an apparent warning to Sharaa to protect Syria’s Druze community after another bout of violence killed more than 100 people. Netanyahu asked Trump not to lift sanctions.

View from Damascus. When Trump did, jubilant scenes erupted in Syria’s capital. Car horns honked in celebration, fireworks exploded and people waved “make Syria great again” signs. Sharaa hailed it as “a historic and courageous decision” that will help his country’s “rebirth”.

Stranglehold. The US designated Syria a “state sponsor of terrorism” when it was governed by Assad’s father, Hafez, who supported Hezbollah in Lebanon. It imposed sweeping sanctions that have spanned 46 years.

1979: The US slapped an arms embargo on Syria and imposed financial restrictions that included aid.

2004: The Bush administration banned all US exports to Syria except food and medicine, branding it part of the “Axis of Evil”.

2011: Obama put targeted sanctions on Assad, his family and officials after they tried to brutally suppress a popular uprising, which led to civil war.

Today: Syria’s economy is in tatters, having shrunk by half since 2011.

• Millions face hunger, with more than 90 per cent of Syrians in poverty.
• Most areas of the country only get electricity for two to three hours a day.
• Inflation is so high that one of the main noises heard around Damascus is money machines counting worthless bank notes.

New uncertainties. For Sharaa, the benefits of lifting sanctions are obvious. For Trump, who appears to be driven by economic opportunism more than grand strategy, it is a gamble. Under Assad, Syria was a proxy for Iran and hosted a Russian military base. Bringing one of the Middle East’s biggest countries into the American orbit would transform geopolitics in the region.

Quid pro quo. In return for lifting sanctions, the US president wants Syria to normalise relations with Israel, deport “Palestinian terrorists” and take over Islamic State detention centres in the country, where tens of thousands of former fighters and their families still languish.

More for the to-do list. Syria’s future also depends on untangling decades of sanctions, finding hundreds of billions of dollars to rebuild the country and grappling with fierce sectarianism.

What’s more… Trump asked Syria to “show us something very special” and wished the country good luck. It might need it.

Photograph: Amadeusz Mikolaj Swierk/Anadolu via Getty Images