The Wargame: Russia knows our weaknesses

Keir Starmer last week called on the UK to get ready to defend the country in the event of an attack by a hostile power, saying that “every citizen” has a role to play.

So what? Britain is far from ready. A new five-part podcast series from Sky News and Tortoise, which now owns The Observer, simulates a Russian attack on the UK. The Wargame is based on the kind of exercise used by governments across the western world to understand what might happen in the event of a war. The series reveals

• how traditional allies such as the US and Nato might respond to an attack;
• how Britain’s lack of air defences leaves the country vulnerable to missile strikes; and
• how preparations for war and civil contingencies have been hollowed out by successive governments of all political stripes.

Cast. The Wargame enlisted a group of former senior politicians and army leaders to play a fictional British government pitched against an imagined Kremlin. Participants include

Ben Wallace, the former defence secretary, who plays the prime minister: “We had fewer choices [in the wargame] because we had less availability of equipment, less readiness, less resilience.”

Mark Sedwill, who plays the national security adviser, a role he had in real life: “We are completely dependent on our allies, which has been a conscious decision for decades.”

General Sir Richard Barrons, who plays the head of the military, led the Joint Forces Command from 2013 to 2016: “There’s a saying: you may not choose war, but war may choose you.”

Premise. The wargame begins in the near future. Tensions with Russia are rising, the US is threatening to withdraw support for Nato, and UK defences are frail. An explosion at a naval base in northern Russia kills dozens of sailors. The Kremlin links the attack to the UK and launches a major military exercise in the North Atlantic putting Britain in range of its missiles.

Escalation. The UK government convenes an emergency Cobra meeting. Officials think they may be seeing precursor activity to a military attack. As events develop over the next few days, Britain’s defences, its reliance on other countries and what this means for its own behaviour, are put to the test.

Back in the real world. European countries are preparing for scenarios similar to the one that plays out in The Wargame.

• Finland has what it calls “a national model of comprehensive security”, which means compulsory conscription for all males, while Helsinki has enough underground defence shelters to accommodate the city’s entire population.
• Sweden, Denmark and Norway have updated advice to citizens in recent months.
• Germany is planning a rapid expansion of Cold War-era bunkers.

Geography is no panacea. Britain perhaps feels some complacency due to its position on the western side of Europe. After all, a Nato command based in Germany is responsible for defending the airspace of the whole alliance. But that doesn’t immunise the UK from the possibility of a missile attack.

Whispering to no one. The UK updated its own preparedness advice with a new website in May last year. It urged households to have an emergency pack of food, water and batteries that could last three days. But the site was launched on the day Rishi Sunak called a general election, and went largely unnoticed.

Gamemaster. The scenario played out in The Wargame was devised by Rob Johnson from Oxford University. He worked for two years at the Ministry of Defence and served in the army. A Russian attack on the UK is “a low probability, high impact event,” he said.

Don’t forget… Plenty of well-placed people believed Vladimir Putin wouldn’t invade Ukraine in 2022. Then he did.

Listen to episodes one and two of The Wargame wherever you get your podcasts.