Trump calls Putin ‘crazy’ for mass drone attack

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At least 12 people were killed at the weekend in one of the largest Russian drone attacks on Ukrainian cities of the war so far. Donald Trump called Vladimir Putin “crazy”. Putin’s spokesman called Trump “emotional”.

So what? So much for peace talks.

• It’s possible Trump has at last understood that the Russian leader with whom he boasts of having a good relationship is bent on subjugating Ukraine on false pretences and at any cost.
• More likely, the tyranny of the last briefer is dominating the US president’s thinking as usual: his rare criticism of Putin followed a long call on Sunday with the EU’s Ursula von der Leyen.

They are likely to have discussed Ukraine as well as tariffs (on which more below).

More sanctions? Possibly. Trump says he’ll consider them, and a bill providing for heavy secondary sanctions on countries importing Russian oil is before the US Senate. But there is no hard evidence of White House pressure on Putin to come to the table.

On the contrary. After a call with Putin last week, Trump threatened to wash his hands of the Ukraine conflict. “This isn’t my war,” he said. If nothing happens soon “I just back away and they’re going to have to keep going”.

High stakes. Ukraine’s survival as an independent nation is at stake. It now faces the existential question of whether it can beat Russia with only European help.

Potentially. This may not be as daunting as it sounds. Earlier this year, a senior American Nato commander was asked how long it would take to end the war using the alliance’s forces in Europe. The response: “Three weeks, two of which would be laying pipeline to get gas to the forces that are moving forward.” The message was clear. In Ukraine, Russia’s military has shown mostly weakness.

It boasts of recruiting twice as many soldiers a month as Ukraine but has lost

• 800,000 soldiers killed and wounded;
• 17,000 vehicles, including 4,000 tanks; and
• a third of its Black Sea fleet.

Counting cards. Although Trump paints Ukraine as fighting a losing battle – telling Zelensky in the Oval Office “you don’t have the cards” – it holds an edge over Russia in drone technology, which has emerged as central to the conflict. Ukraine produces more and better drones than Russia, and is smarter at deploying them.

A key reason Russia has not been able to make significant advances is a 15 km-wide “death zone” Ukraine’s drones have established along the frontlines. These weapons account for roughly 70 per cent of Russian casualties.

Fighting season. The signs are that Russia is gearing up for a summer offensive even so, Jack Watling of RUSI says. Some analysts think Ukraine should not just brace for an onslaught but prepare its own push. Its last offensive relied on tanks. This time it would most likely lean on drones to create a screen for advancing troops and strangle Russian logistics.

And Europe? Last night Germany, the US and the UK lifted all range restrictions on missiles they send to Ukraine, but weapons are still expensive and funding is still inadequate. A coalition of the willing, including the UK, has only pledged €17 billion, less than half the €40 billion needed for a plan pitched by Kaja Kallas, the EU’s top diplomat, in March. The bloc’s €800 billion rearmament plan, including a commitment to “enhancing support to Ukraine”, stretches to 2030 but the need is immediate.

No choice. Whatever happens in Brussels and Washington, Kyiv will soldier on. “This war doesn’t leave us the choice whether to fight or to capitulate,” says Dmytro Pletenchuk, spokesperson for Ukraine’s navy. “We will continue fighting as long as we can and by all means we have”.

Graphics by Pete Guest.