Local elections promise fragmentation and record low vote shares

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UK voters across 5,000 seats go to the polls today in local elections that will be seen as a test of the strength of Reform and the Greens, sentiment towards nationalist parties in Scotland and Wales, disenchantment with Labour and the irrelevance of the Tories. But don’t expect quick results or easy conclusions. Only a third of authorities will count votes overnight, so a full picture is unlikely to emerge before the end of Friday. With 25,000 candidates competing for those 5,000 seats, and the two main parties struggling to shore up their traditional power bases, there could also be high levels of political fragmentation. Some councillors, inevitably, will be elected on record low vote shares. Many different parties will find a way to claim victory.