School system is creating a ‘wasted generation’ which is unprepared for work

Almost 400,000 more young people are at risk of being “not in education, employment or training” (Neet) because of rising levels of school absence, according to new research.

Alan Milburn, a former Labour health secretary who is conducting a government review into the growing number of Neets aged 16-24, said the “cascade effect” from school absence into long-term unemployment was a “social and economic disaster happening in real time”.

He told The Observer: “It's a ticking timebomb that, if not defused, will have catastrophic consequences for this generation of young people and for the economy.”

There are almost a million Neets today, the highest level in more than a decade. More than half are deemed to be economically inactive, meaning they are not looking for work. The prime minsiter, Keir Starmer has warned of a “wasted generation” and described the number of inactive young Britons as a “moral issue”.

But analysis for the Milburn review has found that the problem is set to get dramatically worse in future if nothing is done. Projections based on the increase in persistent absence rates in schools suggested that 70% more young people were at risk of being Neet in 2024/5 than in 2016/17.

The researchers concluded that an additional 384,000 pupils were in danger of being shut out of the labour market later in life on the basis of school absence levels. They said this was likely to underestimate the total potential increase.

Milburn said the results were “terrifying” and laid bare the depth of the challenge. “The Neet problem is more than just a welfare issue. When a young person ends up on benefits, all too often, it’s a story of an earlier system’s failure, usually of education.”

“Being absent from school massively increases the chances of failing at school and if you fail in school, the chances of you getting a job in the labour market are massively reduced,” he said.

The number of pupils who are persistently absent in England has gone up significantly since the pandemic. Last year, around 1.3 million pupils, almost a fifth of the nation’s children, missed 10% or more of school.

The proportion of young people who are “severely absent” – those missing more than half of school days – has tripled over the past decade. Last year 2.3% of pupils were severely absent, up from 0.7% in 2016/17.

Data from the Department for Education associates school absence with lower attainment and mental health challenges. Pupils who miss 30% of school are nearly three times more likely to experience mental ill health than those with no absences.

Milburn said the causes of the rise in the number of Neets were complex, “but schools need to look at themselves and ask whether what they teach and how they teach is creating attachment to education.

“For a cohort of youngsters, schooling is something to be endured, not enjoyed. It's not providing either purpose or belonging and all too often, it isn’t creating a work-ready labour force for the future.”

Children with special educational needs and disabilities are disproportionately likely to be persistently absent, as are those eligible for free school meals. The number of poorer pupils missing at least 10% of lessons increased by more than 180% between 2016/17 and 2024/25, compared with a 29% increase for those not receiving free school meals.

Milburn warned the education system was writing off many children by defining success too narrowly. “Schools are recognised, rewarded and regulated, on exam results,” he said. “Educational attainment, particularly literacy and numeracy, are critical ingredients for future success in the jobs market but we’ve got to make sure young people are acquiring not just qualifications, but the right attributes to be successful in what is a fast-changing labour market.”

The former minister, who served in Tony Blair’s cabinet from 1998 to 2005, said young people were not “snowflakes” unable to cope with employment. “There’s no doubt anxiety and distress levels are higher but so are levels of ambition and aspiration. They’re definitely not snowflakes. It’s completely wrong to blame young people for what’s going on.”

Photograph by Adrian Sherratt / Alamy