Kharg island back in Trump’s sights despite obvious dangers

This article appeared as part of the Daily Sensemaker newsletter – one story a day to make sense of the world. To receive it in your inbox, featuring content exclusive to the newsletter, sign up for free here.

Donald Trump has threatened to seize Kharg island, the source of 90% of oil exports from Iran, and take “total control” of the country’s crude industry. This follows the US and Iran trading strikes that have essentially voided the ceasefire between them. Trump compared a Kharg island operation to the takeover of Venezuela’s oil sector in January, but the US president shouldn’t bank on the same outcome. The many risks of trying to seize Kharg include the prospect of Iran launching missiles at American troops from the nearby mainland. It is unclear, in any case, whether short-term control of Kharg would be enough to force Tehran to sue for peace. The US naval blockade means that Iran is already exporting less than a sixth of the oil it shipped before the war began, depriving the regime of its most important source of income.