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The Iran war entered a new phase over the weekend as Tel Aviv struck Tehran’s oil storage depots and choked the city in thick, black smoke. But so far Israel and the US have refrained from attacking Kharg Island, 25km off the Iranian coast in the Persian Gulf. It is going to get a lot more coverage over the next couple of weeks. Because Iran’s coastline is too shallow for big tankers, roughly 90% of Iran’s oil exports are shipped from the island. Taking out Kharg’s facilities will rock markets, and would be environmentally perilous, but Trump, a lover of spectacle, may want to seize the island intact. This could allow him to gain a slice of Iran’s oil reserves and secure a huge amount of leverage over a regime that refuses to yield. Then the question would be whether Tehran is willing to bomb the island to clear it of US soldiers.
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