US intelligence assessments suggest Iran retains missile heft

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Pete Hegseth, the US defence secretary, said last month that Operation Epic Fury had made the country “combat-ineffective for years to come”. US intelligence assessments appear to disagree: the New York Times cites evidence that Tehran has restored access to 30 of its 33 missile sites around the Strait of Hormuz and has 70% of its missile stockpile and mobile launchers. Roughly 90% of Iran’s underground storage and launch facilities are also either partially or fully operational. This all points towards Tehran retaining the ability to threaten Gulf shipping. Oil prices are still probably lower than they should be given the long tail of this crisis.