US-Iran memorandum kicks can down the road

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While the world waits for details of the ceasefire deal between the US and Iran, Donald Trump has compared what he has struck, favourably, to Barack Obama’s 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which limited Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief. While Obama’s deal ran to 159 pages, the one expected to be signed in Geneva on Friday is a page-and-a-half memorandum of understanding that outlines subsequent negotiations. It is in these negotiations that the crucial issue of nuclear enrichment will be discussed. At the moment, the most that the framework looks like it will do is take the world back to the pre-war norm by reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Even if this happens, it may take months to restore oil flows.