Nigel Farage’s resignation is a high-risk gamble in Clacton

Nigel Farage’s decision to stand down as the MP for Clacton, triggering a byelection in his seat in which he announced his intention to stand again, is a high risk strategy that stems from growing pressure on the Reform leader and his finances. 

Announcing his resignation via his X profile on Tuesday afternoon, Farage said: “This will be a people vs establishment election.” It’s clear that he intends to campaign on this very message – one which helped him enter Parliament in the first place. 

Instead of being “judged” by the media, Farage said Clacton voters should decide his political fate. The announcement follows a standards commissioner’s investigation into the undeclared £5m ‘gift’ he received from the crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne, and ongoing journalistic scrutiny of his finances. 

But it could yet backfire.  

Farage‘s decision to resign does not kill off the investigation currently underway by the standards commissioner Daniel Greenberg, which may yet result in a sufficiently long suspension from the House of Commons that it could trigger a recall petition, leading to a second byelection this autumn.

It also doesn’t prevent him from a further investigation being opened into allegations he received undeclared social media and security support ahead of his time as an MP, from his longstanding volunteer aide, George Cottrell, dubbed “Posh George”.

Neither does it necessarily cement his position as anti-establishment. Now Reform faces a challenger on the right in the form of the Restore Britain party. Although polling nationally at around seven per cent, the party led by Great Yarmouth MP Rupert Lowe performed well in the local elections and already has its eyes on Clacton. 

A spokesman for Restore Britain told The Observer last month they were planning to “throw the kitchen sink at” a byelection, should one arise. Tweeting shortly after Farage’s statement, Lowe said: “The people of Clacton do not need a media circus descending on their town over a busy tourist season because their MP has made a series of bad decisions. He should have declared that £5m. He knows it. We all know it. Now he is going to weaponise a by-election to distract from that.” Lowe subsequently announced he would not field a candidate in a contest triggered by Farage. Instead he said that Restore would wait for “the second one, held later this year, when the investigations into Farage’s finances conclude as we all suspect they will.”

As well as the £5m ‘gift’ from Thailand-based crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne, which on Tuesday he described as a “lottery win” that Farage said would ensure he would never have to worry about paying for his security in perpetuity, there is the scrutiny of Farage’s finances more generally. 

During the short campaign period, the mounting questions about donations and benefits will not be put on ice. In fact, with political rivals expected to spend the summer pounding the streets in the seaside town of Clacton, they will be further under the spotlight. 

Beyond the undeclared £5m and his relationship with “Posh” George Cottrell, as detailed by the Sunday Times, and the series of billionaire backers that have announced their support for Reform, it will also include his six-figure salary for promoting a gold bullion company, his alleged lobbying of the Bank of England for changes to crypto regulations that would benefit donors, and his countless other outside interests. 

Farage’s statement came days after he appeared rattled during a series of interviews in which he was repeatedly quizzed about the £5m gift. He dedicated much of the address on Tuesday afternoon insisting that he had done nothing wrong. He also emphasised that “making money is not a crime”.

In lieu of snap polling, odds from bookies Star Sports Bet put Farage as the favourite to win a byelection, followed by the Tories with Restore a distant third. The date for the byelection is not yet set, but when it comes to the future of UK politics, Clacton could well become as significant as Makerfield, which recently voted for Andy Burnham as its MP.

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