Starmer expected to resign on Monday and set out orderly exit

Keir Starmer is preparing to set out a timetable for his departure from No 10 this week after Andy Burnham’s triumphant return to Westminster in the Makerfield byelection.

The prime minister is understood to have reached the conclusion that his position is no longer tenable after conversations in recent days with cabinet ministers, Downing Street advisers, trade union leaders, and party donors.

Although Starmer is spending the weekend talking his future over with his wife, Victoria, at Chequers before making a final decision, senior Labour figures believe a “clear statement” could come as early as Monday.

One Labour peer, who is close to the prime minister, insisted Starmer would not “walk away” from No 10 creating a vacuum but would “arrange a deliberate slow march in good order, as a matter of duty and dignity”. The friend said: “I think he sees the realities. Stopping ‘chaos’ (as he rightly put it) is now not possible by staying, so that only leaves one option. I think he has come to see it as the dutiful option to serve the country and the party.”

Another Labour grandee said the prime minister now appeared “resigned” to stepping down. “He’s come up hard against the reality that the support isn’t there,” the source said. “The truth is everyone knows this is no longer a tenable proposition. There’s a sadness about it all, of course, but sometimes there’s just an inevitability in politics and as Boris Johnson said, ‘When the herd moves it moves’.”

A cabinet minister said Starmer was “calmly going through things” after a series of highly personal conversations with his closest allies over recent days. “He just wants to do what’s right for the country and, having spoken to the people he wants, he is now spending quality time with his most important adviser – Vic,” the minister said.

Burnham, who defied the odds to trounce Reform UK at last week’s byelection in the Greater Manchester seat, will be sworn in as an MP on Monday. He is due to meet the prime minister early this week.

His supporters claim he has now secured the support of more than 201 Labour MPs to challenge Starmer for the leadership if the prime minister does not step down voluntarily.

This is a critical number because it represents more than half the Parliamentary Labour party and means that Starmer can no longer tell the King that he is able to command the confidence of the House of Commons.

One senior Labour figure said: “There’s no doubt Andy is very significantly strengthened by the result on Thursday night. The question in MPs’ minds will be – who can stop a Reform government? He’s shown he can do that in Makerfield in a very emphatic manner.”

The former cabinet minister Lord Falconer told the BBC yesterday that the prime minister “has absolutely no authority left because everybody assumes Andy Burnham is about to challenge for the leadership and everybody assumes he’s going to win.”

Starmer is under pressure to make his intentions clear before Tuesday’s critical cabinet meeting, where ministers are planning to tell him that his time is up. Ed Miliband, the climate change secretary, Shabana Mahmood, the home secretary, Yvette Cooper, the foreign secretary, and transport secretary, Heidi Alexander, have all urged Starmer to set out a timetable for his departure.

Jonathan Reynolds, the chief whip, has conveyed the strength of feeling on the Labour benches that there should be an “orderly transition”.

The expectation among Starmer’s supporters is that he will set out a plan to stand down in September allowing his successor to be formally adopted at the Labour Party conference. “There are obviously downsides but we are where we are,” one senior figure said. “Keir has realised the game is up and it’s got to be a graceful exit. What he rightly wants to avoid is humiliation but the worst humiliation for Keir personally would be if he stands in a leadership election and is heavily beaten.”

Those who have spoken to Starmer say he is in a reflective rather than a combative mood. One ally said: “He’s not delusional. This isn’t the prime minister in his bunker. He’s obviously reflecting on the Makerfield result. He’s reflecting on what a leadership contest would mean. He’s not demanding loyalty pledges from anyone.”

Another senior Labour source said: “As LBJ [US President Lyndon B Johnson] said, ‘The first rule of politics is to learn how to count’. There’s no way that Keir stays beyond the week because Andy has the numbers.”

A Downing Street source said the suggestion that Starmer might be about to step down was “just speculation”. On Friday, the prime minister said he would be a candidate in any Labour leadership contest. He insisted he had “more to do” and told staff the party had to “pull together” and “take the fight” to Reform.

Sharon Graham, the general secretary of Unite, one of Labour’s biggest trade union donors, said: “Obviously Starmer needs to go. He needs to reflect on what he said about putting the country before the party. The best thing for Labour is to have an orderly transition and a timetable that is clear. However that is done, we need to make sure that there is a conversation around policy priorities.”

Allies of Wes Streeting, the former health secretary, insisted yesterday that he still intends to stand in any leadership contest. He has taken out a contract on an office for 40 members of staff as his campaign headquarters. Last month, he received a £50,000 donation from Fran Perrin, the philanthropist and one of Labour’s most generous supporters. Perrin, who is the daughter of the former minister Lord Sainsbury also gave £50,000 to Streeting last September.

However, some senior Labour figures believe Streeting will do a deal with Burnham to step aside in return for a cabinet job. “I think Wes realises the momentum is massively with Andy and has massively gone away from him and sense will prevail on all sides,” one supporter of the former health secretary said. “Of course Wes should be part of the government. He’s a very able guy so that would make a lot of sense from Andy’s point of view. He wants a broad-based administration.”

Sign up to Rachel Sylvester on politics, a new weekly newsletter sharing insight on what’s happening in Westminster, Whitehall and beyond

Photograph by Simon Dawson / No 10 Downing Street