England are full of belief and Sarina Wiegman is their trump card

Some suggest that England’s journey has been predominantly powered by luck. Watching the quarter-­final against Sweden, it’s hard to disagree, as goalkeeper Jennifer Falk blazes the fifth penalty over the bar when she could have won the game.

The opposing view is that what looks like good fortune is actually all part of a grand masterplan. Or at the very least, decisions from Sarina Wiegman that have clearly turned matches around. England have had five goals scored by substitutes, including equalisers by Michelle Agyemang against Sweden and Italy. The only teams to have scored more at a Euros tournament are Germany in 2009 and England themselves in 2022. The ability to change games from the bench over the course of three tournaments feels like more judgement than luck.

Keira Walsh is unsurprisingly an adherent to the second camp. “When you are playing maybe it looks like chaos but for us it doesn’t feel like that,” she said. “You create those moments yourself, through belief, determination, confidence. It’s not by luck that Michelle’s in the box and scoring. It’s not by luck that people are putting crosses in the box. It’s thought out and it’s purposeful.”

The truth exists somewhere between the two. It is not a new ­phenomenon that this England side can flatter to deceive, often in between a run of games that set those high expectations for themselves. An inability to string consistent performances together is a concern, albeit one England do not seem bothered about given the way they have reached the final.

Despite the inconsistency, making the final is a testament to an unwavering belief that they can win games they have no right to win. If it was a one-off result, maybe it would be easier to write off as luck but it is not. Winners win, and over the past three years, England have won and won to make the final of three consecutive tournaments.

The team they face are the team that they don’t often win against. That the final is a repeat of the World Cup final shows that Spain and England are a level above the rest when it comes to their whole ecosystem around women’s football. It was Arsenal against Barcelona in the Champions League in May, and many of those players are now involved in this final. The level of talent, competitiveness and experience that both sides have gives them an edge.

Then there is Wiegman. England are about to contest their third consecutive final but she is on to her fifth. She has won the past two European Championships, with the Netherlands and England, and lost two World Cup finals, with the same teams. Part of the reason it is so hard to ascribe England’s success to luck is because of her.

During this tournament, she has let a little bit more of herself come out. Even someone as taciturn and reserved as Wiegman could not fail to be propelled into delirious happiness by the way England have turned games around. There has not been a more successful manager at international level and however she has conjured what she has, whether by luck or judgement, has been simply astonishing.

Perhaps the most fitting element of the final is that England do not go in as favourites. Their performances at this tournament may have set the nation’s pulse racing but Spain have a body of work over the past few years that exceeds England’s.

But given the way the tournament has gone for England, it feels apt that they get to be the underdogs this time. Against Sweden and Italy, they seemed to make it as unlikely as possible to win while still managing it. It was almost as if they needed to have their backs pressed up against the wall to find the level required to make it through. Spain are a team who pin you to that wall with their relentless possession and technical ability. England might feel like that suits them just fine.

Photograph by Harriet Lander/The FA/Getty