Six Nations chances are at last in England’s favour

Splitting a tight field when picking a Six Nations winner is a fiddle of an exercise, but there is a method I quite like to use when separating contender from pretender: which team has the fewest concerns? Because, more often than not, the side with the least problems tends to come out on top.

That theory floats when considering the opening round of fixtures, starting in Paris. Fabien Galthié’s chess move to jettison three of his senior players – Grégory Alldritt, Gaël Fickou, Damian Penaud – was punchy, a little wild. Fickou is the only one in his 30s. Penaud has scored 40 tries in 59 Tests, an outrageous strike rate. The signs were there with Alldritt when he was dropped for last autumn’s game against South Africa, only regaining his place after an injury to his replacement, Mickaël Guillard. Picking Nicolas Depoortère and Théo Attissogbe to replace Fickou and Penaud is Galthié favouring youth, so while the move was a shock it was all part of the plan, with Galthié hinting they will all be back at some point.

What Galthié could not have accounted for was Uini Atonio’s immediate retirement after suffering a heart attack, depriving France of their golden tighthead prop, a player they have in the past persuaded to stave off retirement. Now there is a question mark over the cornerstone of France's pack.

Except, on that exact same side when the two packs face each other on Thursday night, Ireland have an even bigger quandary. Three looseheads, the top three in their pecking order, are all out: Andrew Porter, Paddy McCarthy, Jack Boyle. A scrum which suffered against South Africa is now without essential bodies. Maybe it will not show up as much in Paris given the Atonio development, but other teams will be targeting Ireland there and also in midfield, with Bundee Aki banned for abusing match officials and Robbie Henshaw injured.

The back-three from Ireland’s title-winning 2024 season, James Lowe, Mack Hansen and Hugo Keenan? Dropped, injured (for the season) and also injured, but could feature later on. Plus there is the overarching question over whether this Ireland side are over the hill or not. Was 2023 supposed to be their moment, after winning the Grand Slam that year, and has it now passed? ? An answer at fly-half would help. Sam Prendergast gets the start in Paris despite competition. Now to see if he can keep the shirt through to mid-March.

The doubts about Italy are also injury-focused, missing their best goalkicker (Tommaso Allan), their best attacker (Ange Capuozzo), key forwards (Marco Riccioni, Sebastian Negri, Ross Vintcent). Edoardo Todaro building on his electric form for Northampton was an appetising prospect. Now, cruelly, Todaro is out of the tournament with a leg injury picked up in training. Still, if those left can continue on from the autumn, when they defeated Australia and pushed South Africa, then under one of the most highly-respected coaches around in Gonzalo Quesada they can trouble and frustrate opponents. And they will not fear Scotland, having won this fixture two years ago holding off a late Scottish comeback.

Scotland’s issues are mental, not physical. Blowing a 21-0 lead against Argentina was inexcusable. Having the All Blacks on the ropes and failing to seal the deal was familiarly painful. The talent is there, but is the conviction? Scotland need some big wins in this championship - a first over Ireland since 2017, or over France in the Six Nations since 2021 - to win back universal belief.

Which leaves England and Wales. The off-field Hindenburg that is Welsh rugby is one matter, but on the field Wales are still in the first waves of an almighty rebuild under Steve Tandy. They must be more physical, defensively more cohesive and more robust at the set-piece. There were glimpses of a threatening attack in the autumn even when the scorelines were lopsided against Argentina, New Zealand and South Africa. Defeating Italy in the final match of the Six Nations will be everything. Do they have enough to trouble England at Allianz Stadium? Maybe in patches, but not to win. Progress matters more than results. Dewi Lake, Dafydd Jenkins, Dan Edwards, Alex Mann, Louis Rees-Zammit, Blair Murray and Tom Rogers can all have big tournaments.

And England? They have the fewest concerns, buoyant on an 11-Test winning run. The injuries at prop are unfortunate - Will Stuart, Fin Baxter and Asher Opoku-Fordjour are all out - but England’s depth is strong. They will find an answer at centre in this championship, with Northampton’s Fraser Dingwall and Tommy Freeman getting the first hit.

Put England next to France’s selection disruption and Ireland’s absences in the front row and midfield, and England feel positively calm. A team with an eye on a first title since 2020, possibly even a first Grand Slam since 2016, if they can win at Murrayfield for the first time in a while, hold off Ireland at home and then win it all in the final game of the championship in Paris. They have more than enough to beat Wales. The real question is by how much, and whether their improving attack can continue to show welcome progress.

Photograph by Ian MacNicol/Getty Images