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Andy Burnham has won an emphatic victory in the Makerfield byelection, receiving 55% of the vote to Reform’s 35%. This wide margin smashed predictions and puts Burnham in a strong position to replace Keir Starmer as prime minister. Makerfield is the type of constituency Nigel Farage needs to win easily if he wants to form the next government. It is a ‘red wall’ seat that backed Leave in 2016 and overwhelmingly opted for Reform during last month’s local elections. But Burnham has done what Labour backbenchers previously thought impossible: winning back Reform voters while uniting progressives. It means Nigel Farage’s party has now lost three byelections on the trot, with voters casting their ballots tactically to keep Reform out. Yet Makerfield holds limited lessons. Burnham is a uniquely popular Labour figure, unencumbered by the baggage of government. He faced a weak opponent in Reform’s Robert Kenyon, while other parties, including the Greens, sat on the sidelines.
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