‘Dead in the water’: Labour MPs acknowledge that this may be the end for Starmer

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Labour MPs believe that Keir Starmer’s premiership is “dead in the water” after he admitted that he made Peter Mandelson the US ambassador despite knowing of his links to Jeffrey Epstein.

So what? Starmer, who is already deeply unpopular among the British public, will struggle to come back from this. Ministers are speculating that a leadership challenge could come as soon as this month. They are also bracing for more revelations from the millions of files published by the US Justice Department in relation to Epstein. But this week has already

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  undermined Labour’s claim to stand for higher ethics and with victims of abuse;

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  crystalised the level of risk that Starmer took in sending Mandelson to Washington; and

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  hardened the mood of the Parliamentary Labour Party against both the prime minister and his right-hand man Morgan McSweeney.

Making a bad situation worse. Starmer’s admission on Wednesday that he knew of the links between Epstein and Mandelson before he sent the latter to Washington was a sobering moment for Labour MPs. But the way the government handled a vote over whether to release the documentation relating to the appointment has also damaged the prime minister.

Hard Rayner. The vote, a humble address motion brought by the Conservatives, would have been lost by the government if Angela Rayner had not intervened. She suggested a compromise, which was to hand documents to parliament’s intelligence and security committee.

Come back. This was a pivotal moment for the former deputy prime minister, who until now was seen as a non-starter for any leadership race until she resolved her tax bill. “It’s the lesser of two evils,” said one minister. Another said: “She was the saviour of the PLP – but not the PM.”

Mean Streeting. The week has been less positive for Wes Streeting, the health secretary, who has been attacked by right-wing influencers for deleting old posts praising Mandelson.

Here they come. Nonetheless the party is coalescing around Rayner and Streeting as the natural successors to Starmer. MPs are advising each other not to go away over February recess, which begins in a few days, in case matters come to a head sooner rather than later. “Given the conversations I’ve been having it is imminent,” said one minister. A backbencher said things could fall apart before the Gorton and Denton by-election later this month.

Sliding doors. Appointing Mandelson was “one hell of a gamble”, said one source. As well as knowing Mandelson’s links to Epstein – although, he says, not the extent – Starmer was given a dossier detailing the former peer’s lobbying career and his resignations under two previous Labour prime ministers.

McSweeney Todd. Starmer’s chances of staying in place may depend on his willingness to jettison his own chief of staff. MPs are directly calling for the prime minister to sack McSweeney, a divisive figure who pushed for Mandelson to get the ambassador job and even sought advice as to whether it could be done part-time.

Too little, too late… Even if Starmer does fire McSweeney, the widespread view is that this week has been terminal for the prime minister. “The fact [McSweeney’s] not gone already suggests he’ll take Keir down with him,” said one senior backbencher. “I don’t see how he can hide behind Morgan now. It's completely tied to him.”

Photograph by Ben Stansall/AFP/Getty Images