Trump wants to help Bolsonaro. It isn’t working

Brazil’s former president Jair Bolsonaro has been ordered to wear an ankle monitor as he awaits the conclusion of his trial for allegedly attempting a coup. Donald Trump wants the charges to be dropped.

So what? He is unlikely to get his wish. Bolsonaro is expected to be convicted and could be given a jail sentence of more than 40 years. But Trump’s efforts to protect his ally mark a new chapter in the global movement of rightwing populism, with the use of

• punitive action;
• a pressure campaign; and
• attempts at political and economic coercion.

Backstory. In January 2023, protesters stormed Brasília’s government buildings in support of Bolsonaro after he lost to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the presidential election. Bolsonaro, who has been dubbed the Trump of the Tropics, was out of the country but had refused to accept defeat. Thousands of people were arrested and hundreds have since been convicted.

The pond. Rioters include a woman who was filmed defacing a statue with lipstick. She received a 14-year sentence for multiple offences. “Small fish have been hit hard, and top commanders will face the harshest penalties,” the political scientist Cláudio Couto said. “It will send a clear message: don’t try this again.”

Tensions. Brazil’s supreme court briefly banned X last year, picking a fight with one-time Trump ally Elon Musk after he failed to remove accounts allegedly spreading disinformation. The US president’s media group and the video platform Rumble sued Justice Alexandre de Moraes in February, accusing him of “censoring legitimate political discourse” in the US.

The big fish. This suit came hours after Moraes received the indictment of Bolsonaro. Brazil’s former president was charged with leading an alleged coup plot after he lost the election, a plot that included plans to assassinate Lula and Moraes. Bolsonaro has denied

• masterminding a coup plot;
• any connection to the riots; and
• knowledge of, or connection with, assassination plans.

A son’s fight. Brazilian congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro relocated to Washington earlier this year to rally support for his father. It worked. Earlier this month Trump threatened to impose 50 per cent tariffs on the country – effective 1 August – if it didn’t drop the charges against Jair Bolsonaro. Brazil exported more than $40 billion in goods to the US last year, but runs a deficit.

Strong words. In a letter to Lula, Trump said Bolsonaro’s trial “should end IMMEDIATELY” and criticised “SECRET and UNLAWFUL Censorship Orders to U.S. Social Media platforms”.

Further action. The US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, last week stripped eight of Brazil’s 11 supreme court judges of their visas, including Moraes. Rubio has previously called Lula an “extreme left” leader.

Father and son. Jair Bolsonaro was fitted with an electronic tag on Friday to prevent him from fleeing the country. On Monday, Eduardo Bolsonaro said that his assets had been frozen.

Anti-Trump bump. Potus wants to help Brazil’s former president, but may have strengthened the current one. Last week, Lula’s approval rating increased for the first time in a year. He has been defiant against Trump’s threats and earlier this month wore a blue cap with the slogan “Brazil is for the Brazilians”. This has echoes of the “progressive nationalism” successfully championed by Canada’s PM Mark Carney when he also faced heat from Trump.

Next step. Bolsonaro’s trial is in its hearing phase and a conviction is widely expected. One of the judges told local media in January that the supreme court aims to wrap up the case before 2026 to avoid a verdict landing during a presidential election year. Bolsonaro, who is 70, could face a decades-long sentence, which he would likely serve under house arrest due to his age.

If acquitted, Bolsonaro still cannot be a candidate in next year’s presidential race. In 2023, Brazil’s electoral office barred him from running for office for claiming, without evidence, that the country’s voting system was fraudulent.

However… more than 40 per cent of Brazilians say that Bolsonaro should not be convicted. Apart from anything else this gives him the power to anoint a political heir – someone who, if elected, could one day return the favour by pardoning him.