Javier Milei won a surprise victory in Argentina’s midterm elections. He has Trump to thank

La Libertad Avanza, the party of Argentina’s president Javier Milei, finished first in last week’s legislative elections on 41 per cent. The party was polling at roughly 37 per cent in a compilation of surveys published on the eve of the election.

So what? Donald Trump may have made the difference. The result gives Milei roughly half the lower house and the Senate, a timely boost as he enters the second half of a term marred by battles for votes in Congress. It paves the way for him to

• shake off recent political and economic crises;
• push his market-friendly reforms through Congress; and
• cement support from Trump, who has expanded his footprint in South America.

Against all odds. Just a month ago, LLA had been beaten in key provincial races, traditionally seen as a bellwether of national sentiment. Milei’s approval ratings had been sliding after early wins controlling inflation and poverty.

Stumbling government. In August leaked audio tied his sister and closest adviser, Karina Milei, to an alleged bribery scheme at the National Disability Agency. Javier Milei dismissed the scandal all as “lies” and last month launched a book by performing a rock concert. “They’ve won a round, but not the fight,” he said during the show.

More stumbling. In September, a dollar shortage hit the economy. Milei had spent big early in his presidency buying dollars and cutting the fiscal deficit to win investors’ trust. But external debts and import bills coming due in 2025/26 have heaped pressure on the peso.

Little help from my friends. Then Trump entered the stage. Washington opened a $20 billion currency swap line earlier this month and bought pesos to halt the freefall. There were strings attached. “If he doesn’t win, we’re out,” Trump warned during Milei’s visit to the White House. The threat appears to have worked.

Don’t stop me now. LLA’s victory secures continued US financial backing and also gives Milei more time to build what he has called the “great Argentina”. In an interview after the results, he outlined labour and tax reforms with lower taxes, longer working hours and more flexible contracts as priorities for the next phase of his government.

Maths still bites. LLA doesn’t have an outright majority so will have to work with other parties. Argentina also needs to meet debt payments due as soon as next year.

Masters of war. Milei thanked the US for support “of a magnitude never before seen”. Trump will hope that his country can benefit in return. This could be through minerals that are critical for the energy transition. Argentina, along with Chile and Bolivia, forms the “lithium triangle”.

What’s more… The US is paying renewed attention to Central and South America after years of China expanding its footprint. Trump’s tactics in Panama, Venezuela and Argentina set unwelcome precedents, but could yet work as geopolitical power plays.

Photograph by Celal Gunes/Anadolu via Getty Images