How serious is the Russian threat to Europe?

For the second time this month, and only the ninth in its history, Nato convened an emergency meeting called by Estonia to discuss a threat to its security and independence. Ambassadors around the table reviewed the incidents with the alliance’s military leadership and debated what to do for five hours.

At the end, they released a compromise statement warning Russia that “Nato and allies will employ, in accordance with international law, all necessary military and non-military tools to defend ourselves and deter all threats from all directions.”

Some allies had wanted to go further, issuing a direct warning that Nato or an ally could shoot down the next Russian plane violating its airspace. Others worried that the alliance might needlessly escalate the war in Europe that everyone wants to end.

Behind these differences lies a broader divergence in how Nato countries view the military threat from Russia. Some, notably those in Russia’s immediate line of fire along Nato’s eastern flank, saw in the recent Russian actions a deliberate attempt to test Nato politically and militarily.

Others, mainly farther from the frontline, pointed to inconclusive intelligence suggesting the possibility that the drones had gotten off course and the aerial intrusion was the result of navigation errors by inexperienced Russian pilots.

There is nothing new about Nato allies differing on the nature and degree of the threat they face from Moscow. Even during the cold war, some allies believed the Soviet Union was effectively deterred and was largely satisfied with its domination of central and eastern Europe. Others saw a far more menacing threat, that required constant vigilance and countermoves to deter Moscow from probing Nato defences.

Similar divisions persisted after the cold war, especially when former Warsaw Pact countries and the Baltic states joined Nato in the early 2000s. While Germany, many Nordic and southern European countries, sought security through dialogue with Moscow, the new Nato members warned repeatedly about the threat a revanchist Russia posed to their security.

But after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 – after it lost more than one million men on the frontlines and turned its domestic economy into a war economy – one would have thought that these different perspectives would have narrowed, if not disappeared altogether.

Alas, the differences persist. One novel reason is that the United States has joined the cautious camp. US intelligence officers doubt the incidents in Poland and Estonia were intentional, and key US officials in Brussels have pointed out that Russia repeatedly tests US and Nato air defences by flying close or even through their airspace. Indeed, US fighters scrambled last week to intercept four Russian jets near Alaska – and not for the first time this year.

For others, it’s hard to see how Russia would risk a confrontation with a vastly superior foe in Nato given how it has struggled against Ukraine in the past three-and-a-half years. Geographical distance also dilutes the sense of threat, as do old habits that still see Russia’s war against Ukraine as an aberration rather than part of a larger scheme by Russia to undo the post-cold war settlement.

But for those on the frontline – not only in eastern Europe, but in the north as well – the Russian military threat is unmistakable and real. Even if not intentional, the recent incidents demonstrate a Russian recklessness and willingness to take risks that should be deeply concerning to all. They provided Moscow with an opportunity to watch Nato in action and see how allies respond politically – all valuable information if contemplating a more determined military effort.

“I have no reason to claim we’re on the brink of war,” Polish prime minister Donald Tusk said following the drone strikes, “but a line has been crossed.” For Poland, “this situation brings us the closest we have been to open conflict since world war two.”

In years past, European allies would look to Washington to decide how to respond. At the White House, the national security adviser would likely pick up the phone and call his counterpart in Moscow to tell Russia to cut it out. In Brussels, the United States would huddle with other countries and fashion a line everyone could support.

But Washington has been silent. Rather than taking the lead, it has indicated that Europe needs to provide for its own conventional defence, and that when it comes to the war on Ukraine, they are on their own.

It’s now all the more important that other countries—Britain, France, Germany, Poland, and others—take the mantle of leadership and bring the alliance to a clear understanding that Russia poses a real and significant military threat to their security. The bloody war in Ukraine surely makes that abundantly clear.

Ivo Daalder is a former US ambassador to Nato.

Photograph by Olesya Kurpyayeva/ AFP/ Getty Images