People smuggling replaces drugs at top of NCA caseload

The National Crime Agency (NCA) has struggled to respond to mounting demands from the Home Office to curb the rising numbers of arrivals over the Channel. For the first time, the number of open investigations into organised immigration crime has overtaken the number of drug trafficking cases, The Observer understands.

This has meant a shift in personnel and resources at the NCA away from other crime types. NCA sources said the pressure to investigate immigration crime began under the last government but has massively increased under Labour, who came to power with a promise to “smash the gangs”.

One former NCA officer said the pressure to target smuggling gangs had started during Theresa May’s government, but added: “[The NCA] were under nowhere near as much pressure then. The pendulum has swung in terms of the focus on the boats now. I’ve got people who used to work with me who’ve been moved on to Border Force.”

An NCA source said there was a lack of understanding as to how quickly changes can be made. Another said: “This is not a problem we can arrest our way out of. You can take one group down but two more pop up.”

Unlike police forces, the NCA is part of the civil service and can be more directly tasked by the home secretary with strategic priorities. The agency is likely to be heavily affected by the forthcoming police reform white paper, which is expected to see a significant restructure in the approach to certain types of crime.

In November, the home secretary, Yvette Cooper, announced £58m in funding for the NCA to invest in intelligence training, equipment and technological infrastructure. Last week’s spending review included an additional £280m a year by 2028‑29 for the Border Security Command to tackle people-smuggling gangs running small boats. There was also £200m to support a restructure of asylum processing, including closing costly hotels.

The NCA has been working with French, German, Dutch and Belgian authorities, among others, to tackle the smugglers. The drive to target gangs has led to prices for the rigid inflatable boats and outboard motors used by the smugglers more than doubling to about £14,000 each. The countries’ enforcement agencies have seized around 600 boats and engines since 2023.

The UK has heavily invested in the French response, with the unintended consequence of more asylum seekers packing into larger boats to try to capitalise on clement weather and opportunities to launch.

Human rights groups in France have raised concerns that an increasingly militarised response is driving these more dangerous attempts, and the UN estimated that 78 people died attempting to cross the Channel last year – the highest number on record.

Elijah Glantz, of the Royal United Services Institute, said the government investment was significant but that human trafficking gangs were highly versatile. He questioned the expectation that small boat arrivals could be significantly reduced through enforcement measures. “It's a major political priority, so I see why it's happening, but do I think the evidence on police enforcement working merits that amount of money? No.”

There are also questions about policing priorities and whether shifting the focus away from other forms of organised crime is the best use of resources and the best way to prioritise public safety. “It's very difficult to say that [small boat arrivals] is the highest harm,” one source said. “In fact, I would say it certainly isn't.”

A spokesperson for the NCA said it had about 80 investigations open into people-smuggling gangs and that the groups “put lives at risk and threaten the UK’s border security”.

They added that, in the past year, the agency had been involved in 1,900 arrests, helped to seize 230 tonnes of class A drugs, and helped UK police to make 800 child sex abuse-related arrests a month. “The NCA leads the fight against multiple serious and organised crime threats and has to flex resources as necessary as those threats evolve and assessments change.”

Photograph by Glyn Kirk/AFP via Getty Images