Rising water table threatens homes as rain turns biblical

Rain has fallen in the UK for 39 days and 39 nights so far in 2026 but the downpours will not stop at 40, forecasters have warned. Substantial parts of England were at risk of flooding yesterday.

The Environment Agency has issued more than 80 flood warnings, mostly in south-west England and the Midlands, after February continued to deliver the above-average rainfall that blighted January.

The daily drip, drip, drip has created a more pernicious form of flooding than is caused by biblical downpours during stormy weather. Instead, the accumulation of water makes the earth so soggy that homes are at risk of groundwater flooding as the water table rises – a situation facing residents in parts of Dorset, Wiltshire and Berkshire.

The sheer volume of water means it could take months for the groundwater to dissipate, according to the British Geological Survey. This weekend’s horse racing was abandoned in Newcastle, Exeter, Uttoxeter, Sandown and Bangor, but Chelmsford was scheduled to go ahead.

The wet weather is due to the northern polar jet stream above the Atlantic having shifted southwards in recent days. The air current in the upper atmosphere is often fast-flowing as it travels from the US, but has been swirling more slowly over Europe. That creates unstable local weather conditions, driving rainclouds north to the UK. Meanwhile the jet stream's centre has eddied over Portugal, Spain and Morocco, battering them with Storm Leonardo.

Climate scientists monitor the world's four jet streams closely, and expect them to move towards the poles as the globe warms. It is possible the warming Arctic will disrupt the northern polar jet stream, or that it is affected by warmer patches of ocean in temperate regions.

The jet stream’s southward dip has also coincided with masses of cold air drifting from Siberia into eastern Europe, causing one of the most brutal winters in Ukraine’s history: temperatures have dropped below –20C.

Across the Atlantic, the US east coast has seen an influx of cold air from the north pole, prompting New York mayor Zohran Mamdani to warn of “lethal conditions” of –23C. Yet in the coming weeks, Donald Trump’s climate-science-denying administration is expected to repeal the 2009 “endangerment finding” that six greenhouse gases drive global heating. The effect would be to dismantle dozens of regulations designed to limit emissions.

Yesterday, the rain continued to soak south Wales and the south-west. Showers are forecast to spiral northwards today, according to Met Office meteorologist Alex Deakin, who said there would be scintillas of sunshine in England. But mostly rain.

“More rain is lurking in the Atlantic,” he added. “But let’s not worry too much about that.”

39 The number of days that rain has continuously fallen in the UK

80 The number of flood warnings issued by the Environment Agency

-23c The Arctic temperature reached in New York due to a cold front from the North Pole

Photograph by Gary Calton/The Observer