Defection of ‘damaged goods’ Jenrick leads to grumbling in Reform

The arrival of Robert Jenrick might have looked like a triumph, but Nigel Farage’s unveiling of another ex-Tory minister just days earlier had already set alarm bells ringing in Reform UK circles.

Nadhim Zahawi, the former Tory chancellor, was supposed to be Reform’s catch of the week when he stood alongside Farage on Monday, bringing with him experience in government, star power and financial supporters with deep pockets.

But some Reform figures shuddered at his arrival. “The reaction of everyone on the WhatsApp groups I was part of universally thought it wasn't the best of moves – rarely has that consensus happened,” said one. “I think it was a bad move… There are people who are damaged goods and you now have the problem where the party is being stuffed full of ex-Tories.”

Both Jenrick and Zahawi bring controversy with them. For Jenrick, the unlawful approval of a £1bn east London development that saved then Tory donor Richard Desmond £40m in taxes. For Zahawi, the rumblings around an HM Revenue & Customs investigation into his tax affairs, the alleged threats made by his lawyer to tax expert Dan Neidle and remaining questions about the subsequent £5m settlement he made to HMRC as chancellor.

Reform sources had more concerns about Zahawi, pointing out that it revealed the risks of Farage’s modus operandi for defections, in which he keeps the names locked down. Though, usually, this ensures secrecy, it also prevents consultation.

The potential for Zahawi’s defection to cause embarrassment to his new colleagues was underscored by the Tories’ parting shot, letting it be known that they had turned down his requests for a peerage. Although presented as a decision made by the party, Cabinet Office and Tory sources told The Observer he was unlikely to have been given the green light from the Lords advisory committee, as a result of his tax affairs.

Jenrick is Reform’s highest profile defection yet and Farage hailed it as “a historic moment for the realignment of centre-right politics in the United Kingdom”.

An apparent media plan for Jenrick’s defection, leaked to the Sunday Times, called him “the most dynamic politician” in the Tory party and he appeared to have underlined in pen that it was his intention to “support Nigel”. In a later interview, the newest Reform MP urged other Tories to join him and “unite the right”.

Farage told would-be recruits – including a Labour figure he said was considering defecting imminently – that they had until the date of the local elections as the deadline. “If people want to come, they better let me know soon, because after 7 May, the doors are closed,” he said.

This statement came as a surprise to some of those around the party leader, who have argued that wooing new arrivals from other parties is a delicate process. They also warned that it raised expectations around the local election results, which are far from certain as Reform’s poll ratings appear to dip and Kemi Badenoch’s standing improves. Some sources shared concerns that Farage was at risk of overplaying his hand.

A YouGov poll, conducted after Zahawi defected but before Jenrick followed suit, found Reform had fallen 2 points to 24%, while the Tories were up 1 point to 20% and Labour had climbed 2 points to 19%. This is Reform’s lowest rating since last April, prompting some in Westminster to speculate about whether the challenger party has peaked.

YouGov polling for the Times published on Saturday found that more than half of voters surveyed thought Jenrick’s defection had either weakened Reform or made no difference.

One Reform figure said: “I don't know why Nigel is not playing expectation management on this now. If he doesn't get the knockout he needs in May, it may be that the strategy is in difficulty.” They noted that, while the party machine was “on an election footing”, it had limited experience and was yet to “mature”.

Badenoch scored a momentary win by sacking Jenrick before he could resign and publishing extracts of his speech, found on a photocopier, as her former colleague took to the podium.

With a much-hyped pact between the two parties now off the table, some Tories are hopeful of a return to centre-right policies and with it, an opportunity to welcome back former donors. One senior party figure said: “On a constituency level, it is very, very, very hard. The only money coming into the party is centrally, through big donors… it’s a problem if the central party has to pick up every single bill.”

Deriding Jenrick’s claim to be uniting the right, the source added that Cameron era-donors “might come back if they felt there was a chance the Tories would have a say in the next government. Those sort of people won’t support us just to play the game… it will only happen if they can see us influencing who is in No 10.”

Photograph by Yui Mok/PA