The biggest voter group in British elections are the voters who don’t take part. For every ballot cast for the victorious Labour party in July 2024 there were two voters who sat the contest out.
Astronomers tell us much of the universe is “dark matter”, inert and invisible, yet influential. Abstainers are electoral “dark matter”: they heavily outnumber supporters of any single party, yet barely feature in our political discussion, overlooked by politicians, pollsters and pundits alike.
Four voters in 10 turned their backs on politics in 2024, the lowest turnout in a general election in the UK since universal suffrage in 1928, barring 2001. This giant yawn from the electorate stands as a rebuke to political parties, who are failing to engage so many, but also offers an opportunity for anyone who can reignite the interest of abstainers.
The effects can be dramatic when something stirs in these depths. The referendums in 2014 for Scottish independence and 2016 to leave or remain in the EU saw spikes in turnout, which may have played a crucial role in both results – overwhelming turnout in the unionist-dominated Scottish borders regions helped tip the balance against independence, while big surges in turnout in poorer, previously disengaged and Leave-supporting areas helped tip the balance in favour of Brexit.
In both referendums the prospect of big, radical change caught the attention of voters who had long shunned politics-as-usual. Something similar may be happening now, as the radical populist appeals of both Reform UK and the Greens resonate with those who have lost faith in a political system they see as broken. They may be tempted back by parties who share their unhappiness with the status quo and which channel their thirst for something new.
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There have already been signs of changes under way. Labour activists confident they had turned out their core vote in the Runcorn and Helsby constituency last May were surprised by large Reform votes coming from areas where turnout had typically been dismal – with overall turnout well above the norm for a byelection. In October, Labour suffered an even bigger defeat in the Caerphilly Senedd byelection, where an unprecedented turnout may have helped both the victorious Plaid Cymru and Reform, in second place, sweep the party away in an area it had dominated for a century. Many recent council byelections this year have also featured high turnout, at least by the standards of such contests, often accompanied by huge swings in support away from both Labour and the Conservatives.
Two things help bring in abstainers – excitement and organisation. The 2024 general election was seen as a dull fight between two dull men offering little – two bald men fighting over a comb. Now the political conversation is being rewritten by two outsized personalities who throw caution to the wind. Reform’s Nigel Farage and the Greens’ Zack Polanski excite voters in a way their mainstream rivals cannot. That excitement is also registering in fast-growing party memberships, meaning more funds to build party organisation and more foot soldiers to back it.
If a wave of change is building among non-voters, then the May 2026 elections may be when it first breaks in full. There are elections for the Scottish parliament and the Welsh Senedd, and local elections in much of England, including all the London boroughs and most of the big English cities. All of these elections typically feature low turnout, with non-voters outnumbering voters two or even three to one, which magnifies the potential for new voters to shake things up.
This may be a propitious moment for politicians mobilising against the status quo. Both Labour and the Conservatives are polling at record lows, and support for radical alternatives is at record highs. As we saw already in July 2024 and May last year, there is no such thing as a safe seat, even in areas dominated by one party for generations.
Voters turned off by local political monocultures may be tempted back by the prospect of real competition and change, and if they return they may dramatically amplify the changes we see. A century of Labour dominance in Wales could end, Reform could replace both Labour and the Conservatives as the largest unionist party in Scotland, the Greens could challenge Labour dominance in England’s big cities, while the Liberal Democrats and Reform could perform a pincer movement on the traditional governing parties in suburbia.
There is a common element in all these changes – non-voters stirring themselves to back something new. Disaffection from politics and discontent with the status quo have been widespread for a generation. But for the first time big parties promising radical change on both ends of the political spectrum are credible and organised. If they rouse the sleeping abstainer electorate, the effects could be historic. Watch out for the seldom-seen voters. They may yet remake our electoral map.
Photograph by Leon Neal / AFP via Getty Images