Meltdown in Gorton puts wind in the sails of Labour’s immigration rebels

Labour MPs are braced to battle the government over reforms to the UK’s immigration system, with as many as 80 backbenchers and ministers expected to oppose the home secretary’s plans.

Shabana Mahmood will deliver a speech on Thursday arguing that her proposed reforms – which include ending the permanent status of refugees and forcing people to wait 20 years before being able to claim leave to remain – are “entirely consistent with Labour values”.

She is expected to claim that her approach “sets a path in between that of Reform and the Greens”.

However, partly vindicated by the 27.5% swing from Labour to the Greens in the Gorton and Denton by­election, an increasing number of MPs – including ministers – hope to water down the measures, claiming they risk further entrenching division and alienating their voter base, while failing to deal with the problem.

While sources close to the home secretary said they estimated the number of rebels to be around 40, those in the opposition camp said the number was double that and growing, saying concerns were shared among the large number of MPs in urban seats or from the soft left to the more radical Socialist Campaign Group.

A rebellion of that scale is almost three times the size of the one that forced the government to U-turn on its plans to impose inheritance tax on farms valued at £1m or more.

The most senior name linked with the opposition is social cohesion minister Miatta Fahnbulleh, although she declined to comment. Wes Streeting, the health secretary, has previously said he was not “comfortable” with elements of the policy. His spokesman declined to comment.

One minister said there was “very little appetite” for Mahmood’s approach among cabinet colleagues as well as backbenchers, with another telling The Observer: “There is a gap emerging [between No 10 and the Home Office] because people have started saying we shouldn’t be doing it, so Shabana has gone public pre-emptively.”

This was echoed by a third Labour source who said the home secretary had gone public with her plans on Friday “to pre-empt No 10 wobbling”. This was denied by Mahmood’s allies.

At the end of last year, a group of migrant care workers met MPs in a parliamentary event organised by Unison. A well-attended debate in February saw several Labour backbenchers voice concern about changes to indefinite leave to remain (ILR), which would apply retrospectively.

Those hoping to water down the government’s approach are now mobilising into a more organised rebellion, having previously been “giving the Home Office the benefit of the doubt”, said one involved.

“We are hoping the byelection leads to a recalibration of how we land that policy in a way that unites, rather than fractures, our coalition,” they said. “I am not sure Shabana is on that journey yet – which is why she wants to press ahead with reforms before the politics change.”

Another Labour MP said: “No one can explain why any of [Shabana’s] changes are a good idea – they just say they need to do this because of the Reform vote.”

But proponents of Mahmood’s approach highlight polling from More in Common, showing that a majority of Labour and Green voters supported the proposals.

One supportive MP said: “Immigration is the number one issue brought up by my residents. I have to be able to answer their queries with action that meets the depth of their concerns. It would be a total disaster for us if we loosen off on efforts to cut immigration. I can’t get a hearing on housing investment or waiting-list improvements or anything because people bring everything back to immigration.”

A government spokesman said: “Next week, the home secretary will set out her vision for an asylum system based on Labour values – offering protection to those fleeing war and peril, while restoring order at the border and bearing down on illegal migration… Mahmood is seeking a solution to the migration crisis that can bring our country back together. It is a vision that is fair, but firm, compassionate, but controlled, and one that promotes and rewards those who want to contribute to our national life.”

Photograph by Christopher Furlong/Getty Images