Suspended Labour MP Andrew Gwynne is expected to announce as early as this afternoon whether he will stand down and call a byelection, potentially opening the door to a return to Westminster for leadership hopeful Andy Burnham.
Burnham, who is currently the mayor of Greater Manchester, has made no secret of his leadership ambitions – although he was widely seen as having overstepped the mark by being outwardly critical of Keir Starmer before the Labour party conference last autumn. He has since kept a lower profile, although the leadership rumours have not gone away.
Gwynne, a former health minister who had the Labour whip removed over offensive WhatsApp messages, is understood to be hearing from parliamentary authorities what his pension settlement will be today. He will then have “24-48 hours to make a decision”, two sources told The Observer.
Gwynne, who has been an MP since 2005, has long been seen as the route through which Burnham can return to the Commons. He did not reply to requests for comment.
Burnham would have to clear multiple hurdles before he could mount a challenge to the prime minister, not least whether Labour’s national executive committee (NEC) would give him the green light.
Several sources told The Observer it was highly likely the committee, the make up of which is tilted in favour of the party, despite union membership, would block any attempt by Burnham.
One NEC member said: “I can't see him getting through an NEC interview.”
But another source said the NEC would struggle to justify blocking a candidate with such a strong brand recognition locally, given the polls.
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“The flipside of this is that a candidate who isn’t Burnham probably loses that seat to Reform,” they said. “[Team Burnham] would brief out is that it will be weak and running scared for the PM to block him.”
Labour MP Andrew Gwynne was suspended last year over offensive WhatsApp messages
However, Burnham would then have a mountain to climb in order to win Gwynne’s outer Manchester seat of Gorton and Denton.
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Although the seat currently has a comfortable majority of more than 13,000, Reform came second in the last election and has since made strides in the national polls. The Green party, which came a close third, has also seen a surge in popularity.
Burnham left Westminster in 2017 and there is no guarantee he has widespread support in the Commons. Several MPs – both those who had worked alongside him, some of whom see their former colleague as a “deserter” during the Corbyn years, and those who have been elected since – said they were not inclined to back him in any leadership contest.
One Labour backbencher said: “We can’t afford a byelection. We don't want to have a mayoral one as well which would have to happen… and we have a very important set of local elections in every of the 10 boroughs in Greater Manchester. This is a distraction from what we know will be a very difficult set of elections with both Reform and the independents and it’s not fair on those hardworking local councillors who desperately need as much resource from the party to make the case in May.”
Photographs by Danny Lawson/PA Wire, PA/Alamy