Why working-class voters have turned their backs on Labour

Before Andy Burnham takes power on Monday, he could do worse than spend a moment reflecting on what happened to Keir Starmer’s landslide victory and 17% post-election poll lead. How did Starmer end up trailing Nigel Farage and Reform UK just two years later? Why have so many working-class voters once again turned their backs on Labour?

Many had returned in 2024 after leaving the party in 2019, but now feel deeply let down. Reflecting on this is well worth Burnham’s time because Labour’s relationship with working-class supporters, once its core vote, is in peril. Yet there is no route to a parliamentary majority without them.

Of course, this is not just an electoral imperative – championing the rights of working-class voters is most progressive parties’ moral mission.

In his speech on Friday, after he became Labour leader, Burnham talked about the people and places that “made Labour”. Together with the Progressive Policy Institute, we have been speaking to these people and examining why voters in many very different democracies are shunning centre-left parties in favour of populists.

Our most recent research in the UK, consisting of polling by Convergent as well as multiple focus groups conducted over the past fortnight, shows these voters are furious, and impatient for the change they voted for. They expect to see a difference from a Burnham government very fast; 45% demand change within the first few months and 78% within the first year.

Not for nothing have we started using the shorthand of “worried workers” for these voters around the world who are impatient for change. Wherever we have been, we have found an overwhelming sense of despair driving a profound belief that the contract between citizen and state is broken. Many voters are convinced that governments tend to work well only for the very rich and the very poor, leaving people “in the middle” squeezed out. Too often, these voters conclude, governments are driven by unpatriotic international forces – with global corporations and the mega-rich on one hand and uncontrolled migration on the other – while people like them face higher taxes and declining local areas.

Our research among people who voted Labour in 2024 reveals a working class who feel let down, angry, anxious and more cynical than ever. We found that, outside north-west England, they knew little about Burnham – which is, of course, both an opportunity and a challenge. His strongest asset is his reputation as a doer: he is seen as more likely to “get things done” and more “competent” than Farage or Kemi Badenoch.

But the default for voters is cynicism, after being let down by successive politicians, even if they think Burnham says the “right things”. As Lee, a postman from Kent, put it during one focus group: “I’ve seen it all before and heard it all before… I’m afraid my start point is that he’ll say he’s going to do what we want, then won’t. I hope I’m proved wrong but I’m sure I won’t be.”

Worried workers feel a real sense of jeopardy, born out of the worsening cost of living crisis as well as new concerns about an increasingly insecure job market. Many voiced fears about unemployment: several had been laid off in recent months. Others were struggling on low wages with ever higher living costs. One told us that her family would be homeless if things continued as they are. Our poll showed that cost of living continues to be their standout concern.

Local grievances include housing and antisocial behaviour. This echoes what we’ve heard in the US, France, Germany and Australia: hard workers struggle while the “less deserving”, in their eyes, get support. This is what they want to see change. For political leaders around the world, including Burnham, that means delivering some tangible quick wins while signalling a longer-term, more permanent shift in the relationship between voters and their government.

It will be crucial to deal with both ends of the squeeze: resetting the economy in their favour, while also taking a firm stance on immigration, showing government control over borders.

Our polling tells us that Team Burnham has a very small window to define itself as a new government that prioritises the worried worker. First impressions count. and one key lesson from Starmer’s fate is that if you don’t start well and communicate directly, voter goodwill evaporates fast. Starmer’s fortunes were flagging after just three months – despite a significantly higher start point.

Voters demand a quick response – a recognition of the difficulties they face alongside a clear, compelling longer-term vision, with success marked by staging posts and some high-profile symbols of change. People feel they have waited long enough. Our polling also reveals significant pressure for an early election – and it risks becoming a clarion cry if change is not visible and fast.

Deborah Mattinson is Keir Starmer’s former strategy director and a contributor to the Progressive Policy Institute. Claire Ainsley is the director of the Project on Center-Left Renewal at the PPI

Photograph by Darren Staples / Getty Images