Mike Vrabel’s Patriots revival proving swift impact of first-year coaches

With a net worth of more than $11bn (£8.2bn), having started his career in business almost 60 years ago working for his father-in-law’s paper and packaging company, Robert Kraft has not made many poor decisions.

Even so, the owner of the New England Patriots faced a tricky situation at the start of 2024. How exactly do you replace a six-time Super Bowl-winning coach such as Bill Belichick?

Kraft opted for Jerod Mayo, a former Patriots linebacker and assistant coach under Belichick, promoted internally for his first head coaching role. It did not go well. The Patriots won four games and lost 13, frustrating their fans even more by winning the final game of the season, a result that meant the Patriots lost out on the valuable No 1 pick in last year’s NFL draft.

To Kraft’s credit he recognised that hiring Mayo had been a mistake and fired him less than two hours after the final Patriots game of the season, later admitting he had put the inexperienced Mayo in “an untenable situation”. By removing Mayo so swiftly – Patriots fans were still milling around Gillette Stadium when Kraft swung the axe – they could move swiftly to appoint his successor who, coincidentally, was also a former Patriots linebacker, but with far more experience.

Following Mike Vrabel’s first year as Patriots head coach, New England are back in the play-offs for the first time since 2021, have won their first divisional title since 2019, and by winning 14 games have posted their best record since 2016.

Given Vrabel’s success in Tennessee – winning coach of the year and reaching the AFC Championship game, before falling out with ownership and being fired in 2023 – watching him thrive in New England has hardly been a shock. He is a tough coach, lovingly branded by many as an “asshole” who pushes people’s buttons but is loved by his players. His quarterback Drake Maye has gone from showing potential in his first season to playing at an MVP level in 2025, suggesting that, after a couple of years in the wilderness, the Patriots now have an heir to Tom Brady who can keep them in the play-off mix, and possibly win another Super Bowl, for at least the next decade.

Forgive long-suffering fans of the Bills, Jets and Dolphins, their divisional rivals in the AFC East, who have put up with years of dominance by the Patriots under Brady and Belichick, for not rejoicing at this development.

Vrabel is, in fact, one of three first-year head coaches who have guided their teams to the play-offs this season. Ben Johnson during his spell as the Detroit Lions offensive coordinator was viewed as one of the most exciting coaches in the NFL, a tactical mastermind who turned the Lions offense into a must-see attraction through his innovative play designs and use of personnel. Could Johnson retain that wizardry he showed as a coordinator while also dealing with the daily rigours of being a head coach? Given the Chicago Bears finished the season as NFC North champions in his first year with an 11-6 record, the answer is probably yes.

Their offense has been transformed as expected, not only thanks to Johnson’s play designs. The Bears are getting the most out of talented quarterback Caleb Williams and had a hit in the draft with rookie tight end Colston Loveland, who led the Bears in receiving yards. But the best move they made along with hiring Johnson may have been the major investment in the offensive line in free agency, improving their ability to protect Williams and enabling him to play to his high potential.

By contrast, the Lions, who finished in last place in the same division as the Bears, missed Johnson’s ingenuity. It feels a safe bet that as long as Johnson is in Chicago, Williams, who threw for 3,942 yards, will become the first Bears quarterback ever to break the 4,000-yard barrier in a season.

Last but not least, there is Liam Coen in Jacksonville, responsible for the most surprising turnaround of them all. Coen’s tenure may have started with a meme-worthy moment from his opening press conference, delivering a comical version of the team’s “Duval” catchphrase, but since then his team have been no laughing matter. The Jaguars offense has taken off, getting the most out of their former No 1 pick at quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, and averaging more than 33 points per game. But the defense has also excelled, barely allowing teams to run the ball. While there were expectations that Vrabel and Johnson could make the Patriots and Bears competitive in year one, no one saw Coen, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ offensive coordinator last year, leading the Jaguars to a 13-4 record.

The trio’s success combined with successful seasons for a number of second-year coaches reaching the play-offs – Seattle’s Mike Macdonald, the Los Angeles Chargers’ Jim Harbaugh, Carolina Panthers’ Dave Canales – has led to one of the more competitive coach of the year shortlists in years. Not that leading a team to the play-offs in your first year necessarily translates into long-term success. Back in the 2022 season, a record five head coaches made the play-offs at the first attempt – Jacksonville’s Doug Pederson, the New York Giants’ Brian Daboll, Minnesota’s Kevin O’Connell, Miami’s Mike McDaniel and Tampa Bay’s Todd Bowles. Three of those are no longer with their teams, with McDaniel fired by the Dolphins last week. Bowles has clung on to his job this week after missing out on a division title.

Since 5 January – “Black Monday”, as the first day after the end of the regular season is known – there have now been eight head coach firings, including John Harbaugh after 18 years leading the Baltimore Ravens. Owners of those franchises will look at the success this year of Vrabel, Johnson and Coen, curse that they missed out on them and want to get in on the action, desperate to find the next coaching gem.

And if it doesn’t work out? Kraft has shown the way. Be ruthless, reset and start again.

Photograph by Michael Owens/Getty Images