The England stats that offer hope ahead of daunting Ashes in Australia

The Weekly Stat: England have been 2-0 down after two Tests in seven of the past nine men’s Ashes series in Australia. They were 2-0 down after three in one of the others. The exception – the 2010-11 series, when England led 1-0 after the second Test en route to a 3-1 series victory – is the only instance from those nine series in which the Ashes had not been won by Australia after three of the five Tests.

The England squad selected this week for the imminent, tantalising, potentially spectacular Ashes series in Australia faces a gargantuan statistical challenge in its quest to secure the defining series victory of the Stokes-McCullum era.

Success for England’s men in all but one of their Ashes tours to Australia in the past 35 years has come largely in the form of half-eaten crumbs of cricketing comfort – isolated individual performances, occasional dead-rubber consolation victories, and the knowledge that they would not have to repeat the process for another four years.

They have lost 13 of their past 15 Tests in Australia, all by comfortable margins. They have been 3-0 down after three Tests in five of the past six tours.

Stokes’s team, however, have not tended to be weighed down or distracted by statistical tradition. They will be fuelled by how they discomforted and almost defeated Australia in the 2023 English summer, when they attacked the great Australian bowlers with considerable success and in a manner in which they have not been attacked before or since.

The two sides’ form since the 2023 series, a 2-2 draw that could have been convincingly won by either side had a few crucial phases of play (and some Mancunian weather) transpired differently, suggests that Australia remain formidable, and that England remain inconsistent.

England have won 12, lost 10 of their 23 Tests; Australia have won 14, lost three and drawn one of their 18. England have scored 34.8 runs per wicket, at 4.37 per over, and conceded 33.8 at 3.65. Australia have scored 30.3 runs per wicket, at 3.69 per over, and conceded 21.6 at 3.23. The long-awaited age-induced decline of their magnificent bowling attack has steadfastly, thus far, refused to materialise.

The prevailing stats do not, I think, provide a huge amount of insight into what is likely to happen in the forthcoming Ashes. Australia have been involved in some historically low-scoring series. England have, for the most part, played on more batting-friendly wickets, despite which their bowlers have proved that, if they find form and retain fitness, they have the weaponry required for an Ashes challenge.

Jofra Archer took 20 wickets at 18.5 across the three international formats this summer, and 22 at 20.2 in his previous Ashes series, in 2019. Gus Atkinson has made the best start to an England bowler’s Test career since Ian Botham’s statistically astounding early years. Mark Wood, who sparked England’s recovery from 2-0 down in 2023, has taken 23 wickets at 18.9 in his past four Ashes Tests.

Stokes has just enjoyed his best-ever series with the ball this summer against India (17 wickets at 25.2 in four Tests, matches in which England’s other bowlers collectively averaged 51.3). Brydon Carse took 27 at 19.8 in his five Tests away from home last winter. Josh Tongue took 19 wickets in his three Tests against India, and, in his one previous Ashes Test, at Lord’s in 2023, took five wickets, all of which were top four batters – Steve Smith and David Warner in both innings (only one bowler had done so previously, Neil Wagner of New Zealand in 2019-20), plus the previously immovable Usman Khawaja. Matthew Potts has taken at least two wickets in all 10 Tests he has played and has a tidy Test average just below 30 (the second-best, behind Atkinson, of the current squad).

Of course, as anyone will know who (a) has ever been exposed to statistics in any aspect of their life, and/or (b) has been alive at any point in human history, stats can be cherry-picked, mulched, twisted and poked until they reveal what you want them to reveal. There are less flattering counterstats about England’s bowling. And the precedent of eight of England’s past nine trips to Australia suggest that absolutely everything which could possibly go wrong will definitely go wrong. Probably beginning with the first ball of the series.

However, as I keep hearing on the radio news these days, precedents are completely untrustworthy and should be ignored at all costs.

England do not have the weight, depth and longevity of stats that Australia’s great attack possesses, but, individually and collectively, they have all had striking high-level successes that suggest they should pose a significant threat to Australia in Australia. At the very least, they should secure a spot in the top two on the Most Successful England Ashes Tours Of Australia Since 1990 list.

Photograph by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images