This Super Bowl is an unlikely battle of rebirth or redemption

Two of the most unexpected ­stories in recent memory meet on the ­biggest stage in American sport tonight. Back in September, neither the New England Patriots nor Seattle Seahawks were anywhere near Super Bowl contenders, and yet here we are.

What makes this year’s Super Bowl so compelling isn’t just the spectacle, although there will be plenty of that, but the fact both teams have had to adapt to earn their place. This isn’t a case of one juggernaut steamrolling the league, it’s two evenly-matched sides who have grown on the pitch and in their belief.

Let’s start with the Patriots. Last ­season – their first after Bill Belichick’s 23-year reign ended – they won just four games, then they essentially tore up everything and started again. There is only one player left on the roster from 2024. In any professional sport, that kind of turnover is almost unheard of, let alone in the NFL, where continuity is usually king. And yet, under new head coach Mike Vrabel, they have rebuilt at remarkable speed. Having spent eight seasons in New England during his playing days, victory would make Vrabel the first person to win a Super Bowl as player and head coach of the same team.

Much of their story centres on ­quarterback Drake Maye. In just his second year, and working under a new coaching staff, Maye has had to grow up fast. He has been sacked more than any coach would like, partly because the Patriots are starting two rookie offensive linemen on the left side, not exactly ideal protection when you’re facing elite defences. But Maye has also shown why the Patriots believe in him. He can extend plays, make throws on the move, and when things click, he looks every inch a franchise quarterback. If New England are to lift the Lombardi Trophy tonight, he will have to be special.

Defensively, the Patriots have quietly become one of the most awkward teams in the league to play against. They are excellent on third down, the moments that decide whether a drive lives or dies, and they are outstanding at keeping opponents out of the red zone, the final 20 yards before the end zone. They disguise coverages well, show one thing before the snap and deliver another, and they are opportunistic when mistakes appear. Against a quarterback who has occasionally been prone to turnovers, that matters.

Which brings us to Seattle. If the Patriots’ story is about rebirth, the Seahawks’ is about redemption. This is Sam Darnold’s first season in Seattle, under head coach Mike Macdonald, and it has been transformative. Drafted third by the New York Jets in 2018, Darnold struggled with injuries and consistency throughout his early career. Let go by the Minnesota Vikings last year despite improving enough to be selected for the Pro Bowl, at 28 he looks to have found a long-term home.

And he leads a Seahawks offence built around explosiveness. They love to throw the ball deep and are very good at it. Wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the offensive player of the year at just 23, is the obvious headline act. Defences know the ball is going his way, plan for him all week, and he still finds space.

And then there’s the defence. For me, this is where the Super Bowl will be won or lost. Seattle have playmakers at every level. They disguise pressure, mix coverages and force quarterbacks into holding the ball just a fraction too long. Against the young Patriots offensive line that has struggled with communication, that could be decisive. Defence still wins championships, and Seattle’s is as complete as any in the league.

There’s also a moment of history worth savouring for a UK audience. Seattle’s defensive coordinator, Aden Durde, is British, the first Brit to reach a Super Bowl in that role. It’s an incredible achievement and a powerful reminder that there are many paths into the NFL.

If you’re new to American football and tuning in tonight, don’t worry about understanding everything. Watch the third downs, that’s where the tension peaks. Watch what happens in the red zone. Notice whether Maye starts scrambling more, and whether Darnold protects the ball under pressure. Those small battles add up. And yes, there’s the half-time show, headlined by Bad Bunny. Some will tune in just for that, and that’s fine. The Super Bowl has always been bigger than the sport.

As for a prediction? I think the Seahawks will edge it. They feel like the more complete team, and I trust their defense in the biggest moments. But neither side is going quietly. This is a Super Bowl built on belief, resilience and the idea that no one else thought they would be here. That alone makes it worth staying up for.

Photograph by Stephen Maturen/Getty Images