Andy Burnham plans ‘mini-rally’ in Westminster as Starmer says goodbye

Photograph by Lauren Hurley / No 10 Downing Street

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A triumphant Andy Burnham is planning a “mini rally” in Westminster on Monday afternoon, while Keir Starmer confirmed his departure this morning.

So what? Six weeks ago, Starmer said he wanted a decade in No 10. The prime minister was insisting as late as Friday that he would fight any leadership challenge, but froze out his usual allies over the weekend. By Sunday, Peter Kyle, the business secretary, said that Starmer was “taking time to think through the political realities”.

Those political realities are Burnham swooping into parliament, fresh from his Makerfield byelection victory, with support from more than half of Labour MPs. Allies told The Observer that Kyle’s words were “steps to graduate us to reality” that Starmer will resign.

“Tomorrow afternoon will be all about Andy’s arrival, swearing in, and a mini rally in Westminster Hall,” one Burnham ally said. “You don’t want to be going after that if you’re the PM.”

The destination now seems certain, but the route is less clear. While it is understood that more than 201 MPs have backed Burnham for leader, enough have resisted to make a contest, and not a coronation, possible. They include

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  the former health secretary, Wes Streeting, though a cabinet job offer may placate him;

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  the former defence minister, Al Carns, though he is not believed to have reached the 81 supporting MPs he needs; and

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  other challengers, including Starmer loyalists such as Darren Jones, the current chief secretary to the prime minister.

Here to autumn. A contest would necessitate weeks of canvassing with a vote at Labour’s party conference at the end of September. A coronation could be almost as protracted, both to give Starmer legacy-building time, and to give Burnham – who will not even be sworn into parliament until Monday afternoon – the opportunity to prepare for government.

Mandate for change. Another ally suggested that “party management” would be harder without the mandate of having won a contest. Rishi Sunak, who became prime minister without one, certainly seems to think so. “Without one, your mandate is weak, and you end up being bound by commitments that aren’t your priorities,” he wrote this weekend.

A fair Co op. Either way the former Greater Manchester mayor now looks on course to take the keys to No 10, the first northerner to do so since Harold Wilson in 1976 and the first ever to hold the ‘Labour and Co operative’ designation.

The Co op. A party within a party, the Co op takes a community-centred approach with policies that include greater devolution, people power and an economy with greater local agency. It’s no coincidence that Labour and Co op MP Miatta Fahnbulleh has been advising Burnham, or that there is crossover with Burnham’s “Manchesterism”. The city is home to the Co op movement.

That said, Burnham will face the same challenges as Starmer, including cost of living pressures and a tough geopolitical situation. He also faces questions about how to approach immigration, which risks alienating factions within Labour whichever route he adopts, and about his choice of chancellor. Ed Miliband, long seen as the obvious choice for many around Burnham, is already coming under fire. His appointment would bring the added threat of market reaction.

Bad hand, played badly. The path to this point was arguably set by Labour’s 2024 manifesto which promised no hikes to general taxation, boxing in the prime minister and his chancellor.

But… the way that Starmer handled specific issues such as the winter fuel allowance, welfare reform and Peter Mandelson’s appointment as ambassador to the US was particularly damaging. The next prime minister will need to avoid making similar mistakes to stay in power.