Nepal faces a dangerous power vacuum

Protesters torched Nepal’s parliament yesterday after the prime minister resigned in the wake of the worst unrest to hit the country in decades.

So what? It’s uncertain where Nepal goes next. A power vacuum and protests that show no sign of stopping have imperilled a country that

• has already witnessed a series of democratic revolutions;
• is economically dependent on its neighbours India and China; and
• plays host to a young population who feel underserved by the establishment.

How it started. Last Thursday the government banned dozens of platforms including WhatsApp, Facebook and Instagram, saying they had failed to meet legal requirements. Demonstrators took to the streets on Monday to show their opposition.

Why Nepalis care. Social media is crucial for the millions of Nepali citizens with family members employed in the Middle East and Malaysia. More than 2,000 young people leave the country every day, with workers sending home $11 billion in 2024. This accounted for a little over a quarter of the country’s GDP.

A little history. There is also a wider dissatisfaction at the democratic experiment. Nepal’s monarchy was abolished in 2008 following decades of violence and upheaval. The country has had 14 prime ministers since then and been unable to achieve political stability. After the new constitution took effect in 2015, three leaders including Oli have essentially served on rotation.

Escalation. On day one of the protests, thousands gathered near the parliament building in Kathmandu before reportedly entering a restricted area. The police responded with tear gas, rubber bullets and live ammunition. At least 20 people were killed and hundreds injured.

Motivation. Placards held by demonstrators show alleged corruption is as much of an animating force as the social media shutdown. High-profile scandals aside, a particular source of anger are so-called “nepo kids”, children of the political elite who flaunt their wealth online. The per capita income in Nepal is $1,400 a year and a fifth of young people are unemployed.

To note: this is of particular importance in a country where the median age is 25.

Top of the tree. Protests also took place in the hometown of the prime minister KP Sharma Oli, a former political activist serving his third term in office. Oli lifted the social media ban in the early hours of Tuesday and promptly resigned “to facilitate the solution to the problem and to help resolve it politically in accordance with the constitution”. His submission to the demonstrators followed similar scenes in Bangladesh last year and in Sri Lanka in 2022.

Fast-moving. This didn’t stop a second day of violence. Protesters set fire to Nepal’s parliament building, as well as the homes of Oli and other politicians. Both the ceremonial head of state and the chief of the army pleaded for calm. On Tuesday night, troops took to the streets.

Ripple effect. The ongoing turmoil may cost the economy. Despite a Covid drop in tourist numbers, hundreds of thousands are drawn to Nepal every year by the Himalayas. The country’s main airport shut on Tuesday and Britain has advised its nationals to avoid protests.

What’s more… in the coming days these warnings could grow stronger. Balendra Shah, mayor of Kathmandu and a former rapper, has the support of Gen Z. But Oli has no obvious successor.