Orbán’s defeat is more about the economy than ideology

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Centrists continue to celebrate the historic defeat of Viktor Orbán, the self-styled illiberal populist who governed Hungary for 16 years. Germany’s Friedrich Merz says that it has sent “a very clear signal against right-wing populism across the whole world”.

So what? They have reason to be cheerful. Voters dislodged Orbán despite interventions by grandees of the global far right, including Donald Trump and France’s Marine Le Pen. But the result in Hungary was not necessarily a vote in favour of traditional western liberalism. Instead it appears to have been a rejection of the status quo by an electorate

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  fed up with corruption;

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  dissatisfied with a parlous economy; and

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  unconvinced by claims that Ukraine was to blame.

Victory of the haters. According to polling by Gallup, Hungarians were mainly concerned with governance and the economy. In a country with widespread corruption, low wages and high housing costs, this translated into an overwhelming rejection of a poorly performing incumbent.

It’s the economy, stupid. This makes the election comparable to others across the world. Voters chose Trump in the US because Democrats were unable to assuage worries about the cost of living. Keir Starmer swept to power in the UK because of stagnation under the Conservatives. Despite their contrasting ideologies, both Starmer and Trump are now struggling in the polls after a failure to improve things.

Distressed asset. Support for the far right tends to correspond with high levels of income inequality. Countries with a scarcity of stable jobs and affordable housing are fertile ground for populist insurgents who scapegoat immigrants and make bold promises. When the far right does not deliver on these promises, it’s punished like any other incumbent.

Bottom line: the removal of Orbán does not change the basic equation.

Overton window. Far right parties are still a significant force across the western world. They hold power in Italy and are part of ruling coalitions in Austria, Sweden and elsewhere. In France and Germany they are the main opposition, having supplanted the traditional right. Reform leads polls in the UK and has dragged the Conservatives further away from the centre.

Continental drift. The far right also holds 24% of the seats in the European Parliament, where Ursula von der Leyen’s party has to rely on its votes to push through legislation.

Take the win. But Orbán’s defeat is an important victory for centrism that rids the EU of its biggest disruptor and deprives the global right of one of its most important lodestars.

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  It coincides with the success of Canada’s Mark Carney, a former central banker, who has shown that liberals can still own the economic argument if they have the right profile;

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  it deprives Vladimir Putin of a dependable stooge in the heart of Europe; and

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  it should lead to the unblocking of a €90bn loan to Ukraine, which could make life even tougher for Russian troops on the front line.

And yet… hopes that the Hungary result denotes a broader ideological shift may be misplaced.

Photograph by Krisztian Elek/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images