Starmer vows to stay put after a local election thrashing

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Keir Starmer told The Observer this weekend that he wanted a decade as prime minister.

So what? It is no longer up to him. After Labour suffered historic losses in Thursday’s local elections, one MP has threatened to oust Starmer, while Angela Rayner, Wes Streeting and Andy Burnham are circling the top job. This leaves the prime minister with a seismic mission to

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  convince backbenchers he can deliver a meaningful reset;

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  regain votes lost to parties on both the left and the right; and

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  do these things while continuing to fulfil the duties of prime minister.

A shellacking. In line with its gloomy expectations, Labour performed poorly in the local elections on several fronts. It lost power to Plaid Cymru in Wales, failed to regain Scotland from the SNP, and lost thousands of seats in England, primarily to Reform but also the Greens.

An omen. If repeated in a general election, with the usual caveats, Reform would be on 26%, the Greens on 18%, and Labour and the Tories on 17%. So much for the two-party system.

Go west. Labour’s Catherine West was the first to publicly break ranks, saying “new leadership” was required and threatening to launch a formal challenge against Starmer. She doesn’t want the job herself but intends to push would-be successors to get things moving.

Toil and trouble. That may not be too difficult. Streeting, the health secretary, has reportedly told Starmer that he is ready to be the next prime minister. His case will have been helped by Labour’s hold of Redbridge council, which includes his constituency. Rayner, meanwhile, has not launched a leadership bid, but urged Starmer to tack to the left and allow Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester and a former Cabinet minister, to return to parliament.

Wes we can. Streeting is arguably in the driving seat. Burnham cannot run if he is not an MP, while Rayner is still waiting for the result of an HMRC investigation into her tax affairs.

I’m not leaving. Starmer was bullish in an interview with The Observer this weekend, defying calls to set out a timeline for his departure and telling Rachel Sylvester that he saw his government as a 10-year project. He plans to seek closer alignment with Europe, which has gone from being the issue-that-shall-not-be-named to a potential vote winner.

And vote loser. Although embracing the EU could conceivably win back some Labour voters who have jumped ship to the Greens or the Lib Dems, it may not do much to regain those who plumped for Reform in historic Labour heartlands in England and Wales.

To wit. John Curtice, the polling expert, found that Reform did best in places that supported Brexit. The party’s share averaged 40% in wards where more than 60% voted to leave the EU.

What’s more… West has given potential challengers until today to move against Starmer, before she sets about getting signatures herself. She would need 81 to trigger an immediate contest. So far, around 40 MPs have called on Starmer to set out a timetable of resignation.

Photograph by Andy Hall for The Observer