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Labour’s soft-left MPs have called for a reshuffle so that Keir Starmer’s cabinet reflects “the breadth of views across the parliamentary Labour party”.
So what? They might succeed. The Labour left have felt marginalised by a government they believe has strayed from the party’s core values. But after the departure of Morgan McSweeney, Starmer’s chief of staff, they have an opportunity to shape the direction taken by No 10. This
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could return Labour to a more left-wing footing;
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may fend off the Greens and regain progressive votes; but
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looks unlikely to save an historically unpopular prime minister.
Crisis incoming. A few days ago, Starmer seemed to be on his way out. McSweeney resigned on Sunday over the decision to appoint Peter Mandelson as ambassador to Washington. Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader, then openly called for Starmer to quit.
Crisis averted. There was an expectation that others would break ranks. Instead cabinet ministers rallied around the prime minister, who received a standing ovation at a meeting of Labour MPs. Starmer told them he was “not prepared to walk away” and remains in charge, even as a new row rages about the peerage given to his former communications chief.
New direction. Ed Miliband, the energy secretary and former Labour leader, has admitted that MPs had “looked over the precipice” and opted against a divisive leadership contest. Instead he and others are urging the prime minister to change tack.
Infamy infamy. McSweeney was the architect of the Starmer project, which purged Corbynites and dragged Labour towards the centre. This disgruntled left-leaning MPs. There was a rebellion over attempts to slash welfare payments, and unease about Labour’s stances on Gaza and immigration. Roughly 200,000 members have left the party over the past five years.
Taking notes. The rightward lurch was partly designed to fend off Reform, but hasn’t worked. Nigel Farage’s party is riding high in the polls, while Starmer is the most unpopular prime minister in history. He currently has lower approval ratings than Liz Truss.
Pleasing no one. Labour has also become vulnerable to the Greens under ‘eco-populist’ Zack Polanski, who has positioned his party as the only credible progressive challenger to Reform. It has provided a home for politically homeless left-wingers, increasing its support from 9% to 16% of the electorate over the past year.
Can I get a rewind? The talk within Labour is of correcting mistakes. A reshuffle could restore soft-left figures to the cabinet, including Angela Rayner and Louise Haigh. There are also calls for a progressive successor to McSweeney and a renewed focus on the cost of living.
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Policy platform. The left should have plenty to cheer about. Starmer’s government has renationalised the railways, raised the minimum wage twice, removed the two-child benefit cap, bolstered unions and improved renters’ rights. These decisions all align with core Labour values, but have been overshadowed by blunders, missteps and poor messaging.
Borrowed time. Although Starmer has temporarily averted the crisis, his decline appears to be terminal and it has become a question of when, not if, he faces a leadership challenge. This could come this month, after the Gorton and Denton by-election, or after May’s local elections.
Runners and riders. Starmer benefits from the disorganisation of his would-be successors, none of whom are ready to challenge him. Wes Streeting is still making efforts to distance himself from Mandelson, Rayner is waiting for HMRC to resolve her tax affairs, while Burnham's route to parliamentary return has been blocked by Labour’s executive committee.
What’s more… This doesn’t mean the prime minister is in still waters. On Thursday, Chris Wormald, head of the civil service, became the latest government figure to call it quits.
Photograph by Ian Forsyth / Getty Images