Talks to end the Iran war are shrouded in uncertainty

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Iran has yet to confirm whether it will attend peace talks with the US in Islamabad, after American marines seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship near the Strait of Hormuz.

So what? A fragile ceasefire, which expires on Wednesday, dangles by a thread. A US delegation led by JD Vance is preparing to travel, but Iranian officials have publicly cast doubt on the idea of talking to the US. If the sides do meet, as expected, it is far from certain they will

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  will extend the truce;

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  make concessions; and

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  find a lasting solution to the conflict.

Distant past. Last week there were brief hopes of a breakthrough. After Israel and Lebanon agreed a ceasefire, the Iranian foreign minister declared the Strait of Hormuz open. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps lashed out at the minister and said the strait was closed because of the US blockade of Iranian ports, possibly indicating a rift within the regime.

Anything you can do. Trump insists the blockade will remain in place until the two countries strike a deal. It is designed to pressure Iran by preventing ships from using its ports. The US navy has said it will board, inspect and seize these vessels if they try to enter the Persian Gulf.

Is it working? Not perfectly. Nearly 30 vessels have turned back after warnings from American warships. But shipping data from Lloyds List Intelligence shows at least 26 vessels in Iran’s ‘dark fleet’ have flouted the blockade.

Special ops. Things escalated early on Monday when American marines descended from helicopters to seize an Iranian ship in the Gulf of Oman, at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said the ship had ignored a warning to stop, so US forces halted it "by blowing a hole in the engine room". Iran said this was a violation of the ceasefire and vowed to retaliate.

Will they, won’t they. The raid threw the talks in Islamabad further into doubt, with Tehran saying it “has no plans” to participate. Iranian officials subsequently signalled to negotiators they are preparing to send a team. Talks could still take place on Wednesday.

Tough talk. Both sides are attempting to play hardball. Trump, who wants a way out of the way, said that no deal means the whole of Iran will be “blown up.” Mohammed Bagher Qalibaf, Iran’s chief negotiator and parliament speaker, said Iran would “not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats” and has “new cards” to play on the battlefield.

Hardliners in front. According to the Institute for the Study of War, the IRGC is steering Iran’s policy on the Strait of Hormuz and its position in the talks. It has no plans to surrender control of the waterway, its biggest point of leverage and best safeguard against further attacks.

The past has not passed. It doesn’t help that the last round of talks was a dud and that previous negotiations were interrupted by US and Israeli attacks. Tehran’s distrust runs deep.

Mind the gap. Even if the two countries do renew talks, they are far apart on everything from Iran’s nuclear programme and stranglehold on Hormuz to sanctions relief and its support for proxies.

That said, there could be scope for a deal that reopens the waterway in some form and builds on Iran’s reported offers to pause nuclear enrichment for five years. But thrashing out the details will take time, something Trump is reluctant to give. Such an agreement would also leave the US with little to show for a war that has cost at least $11.3bn and brought the world economy to the brink.

What’s more… In the absence of an extension of the fragile status quo or a deal, there is a risk of more fighting. This would drag Trump further into a war of choice with few clear routes out.

Photograph by AFP via Getty Images