This article first appeared as part of the Daily Sensemaker newsletter – one story a day to make sense of the world. To receive it in your inbox, featuring content exclusive to the newsletter, sign up for free here.
There is still no deal between the US and Iran, despite Donald Trump’s insistence that progress is being made “slowly but surely”.
So what? This part should be simple. Under discussion is an initial framework to extend the current ceasefire by 60 days and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, not a substantive agreement that resolves the issues that caused the war. This ‘memorandum of understanding’
•
has been criticised by hardliners in Iran and the US;
•
kicks thorny issues into the long grass; and
•
could be undermined by the resumption of fighting in Lebanon.
Dragged out. The two sides have spent weeks tussling over the language of the one-page memo, which would pave the way for future talks on Iran’s nuclear programme and ending US sanctions. Donald Trump convened his top aides on Friday to make a “final determination” on the deal, but the two-hour meeting ended without a clear outcome.
Trading blows. The meeting capped a week in which the US launched fresh strikes on southern Iran and Iran attacked an American military base in Kuwait, injuring several American personnel.
Dug in. Tehran has proved a stubborn negotiating partner. Its officials maintain that Iran and Oman, which also borders the Strait of Hormuz, have the right to impose levies on ships passing through the waterway. Having already been attacked twice by the US and Israel during previous negotiations, Iran also wants guarantees against further hostilities.
Phasing. Another demand is an end to the US blockade on Iranian ports. According to one account, this embargo would remain in place but be gradually lifted based on how much shipping Iran allows to pass through the strait. There is also talk of setting up a $300bn international investment fund, facilitated by the US, to help fund Iran’s postwar reconstruction.
Frozen funds. Iran’s state media has suggested the framework includes an agreement to release billions of dollars of frozen Iranian funds. This is a particularly sensitive issue for Trump, who criticised Barack Obama for repaying $1.7bn to Iran to get the 2015 nuclear deal over the line.
No rush. Trump insists he is in no hurry to strike a deal. This is not true. With the midterms approaching and gas prices still high, he is under pressure to end an unpopular war. But an agreement that concedes too much to Iran risks angering hawks in the Republican party, especially if he achieves far less than Obama achieved a decade ago, without a costly war.
No movement. Iran’s calculus is different. "From the Iranian leadership's perspective, survival is victory [and] they have survived," said Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group. In fact, some hardliners are calling on the regime to make no concessions at all to the US.
Regional actor. Trump wants Iran to sign a “zero enrichment” deal and hand over its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Tehran has baulked at this. It wants "recognition of Iran’s regional and nuclear status,” said former Iranian nuclear negotiator Seyed Hossein Mousavian.
Spoiler warning. Israel resumed its ground offensive against Iran’s proxy Hezbollah last week, pushing deep into southern Lebanon and launching strikes on Beirut. Tehran wants peace there to be part of the deal, while the US wants it treated as a separate issue.
What’s more… Last week Trump called on several countries, including Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Qatar, to normalise ties with Israel as part of any deal to end the Iran war. This demand, unsurprisingly, fell flat.
Photograph by AFP via Getty Images
Newsletters
Choose the newsletters you want to receive
View more
For information about how The Observer protects your data, read our Privacy Policy