The far right again hits a ceiling in France

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Local elections in France ended in disappointment for the far-right National Rally on Sunday after the party failed to take any of the major cities targeted by its candidates.

So what? Despite significant gains, the far right may still have a ceiling. These municipal races were viewed as a barometer for the 2027 presidential election, where a successor to Macron will be chosen. But Sunday’s results indicate that voters

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  do not trust the far right to run large cities such as Marseille;

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  prefer mainstream alliances to the more extreme options; but

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  remain largely unsatisfied by the choices on offer across parties.

Without a care. More than 48m French people were invited to choose their local mayors and councillors in a two-round vote. Only 57% of those eligible turned out for the second ballot, a historic level of apathy outside of Covid and evidence of widespread political discontent.

Main event. In what had been expected to be a close-run contest, Emmanuel Grégoire from the centre-left Socialist party comfortably won the Paris mayoral race as part of a left alliance.

Surprise wins. The Socialist party also took Marseille. An alliance led by the centre-left Ecologists, but including La France Insoumise, a radical left party, was victorious in Lyon.

In the north, key conservatives held on to their mayorships. These include Édouard Philippe, the former prime minister, and Gérald Darmanin, the current justice minister.

Muddying the picture. Although the far right struggled in its major target cities, it did make inroads. Éric Ciotti, an ally of National Rally, took Nice. National Rally candidates were also elected in Carcassonne, Fréjus and Perpignan.

On the other side, the radical left can point to successes too. La France Insoumise claimed a “remarkable breakthrough” after winning in several municipalities.

Bigger picture. But the elections were seen in part as a test of whether voters could stomach the mainstream Les Républicans making alliances with National Rally candidates, and the mainstream left with La France Insoumise. Results suggest that in many cases voters cannot.

Take the left. Despite its success in Lyon, La France Insoumise was a drag elsewhere. In Brest, which the Socialists have held for almost 40 years, the outgoing mayor was defeated after making an alliance with the radical left party. In Clermont-Ferrand, which had been held by the Socialists since 1944, the Socialist candidate lost after a similar alignment.

Meanwhile, Grégoire in Paris benefited from a mainstream alliance of the left which excluded La France Insoumise. Grégoire beat his conservative rival

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  despite the National Rally candidate withdrawing after the first round; and

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  despite the candidate from La France Insoumise refusing to withdraw from the ballot.

In sum. The leaders of Les Républicans and the Socialist party had implored local parties to resist the urge to ally themselves with more extreme positions even if it risked losing their races. Many took heed. Others did not, often to their cost. Whether this holds lessons for next year’s presidential election, where the stakes will be considerably higher, remains to be seen.

The ceiling. National Rally leader Jordan Bardella says there isn’t one, but yet again his party has struggled in the second round when minds appear to sharpen to keep them from power.

Everyone is a winner. The spread of results meant that every party focused on bright spots to claim some sort of victory on Monday morning.

Or a loser… But the number of would-be voters who didn’t show up at all suggests that the true preference of many people in France is “none of the above”.

Photograph by Kenzo Tribouillard/AFP/Getty Images