The removal of another political rival to Erdoğan could force Europe to take a stand

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On Sunday, riot police stormed the headquarters of Turkey’s largest opposition party after a court dismissed its leadership.

So what? Turkey is a vital ally to Europe as a mediator between east and west. In July, it is due to host the Nato summit. But President Erdoğan continues to target his domestic opponents in ways that make it look less like a democracy. Attempts to depose the opposition leader

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  have echoes of last year’s arrest of the Istanbul mayor;

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  may lead to more financial turmoil and an early election in Turkey; and

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  will force Europe to choose whether to practise realpolitik or finally take a stand.

Democracy dies. Last week, a Turkish court issued a ruling that annulled the 2023 leadership contest within the Republican People’s Party (CHP). This ousted Özgür Özel, who made major local election gains in 2024 at the expense of Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party. The court ordered the reinstatement of Kemal Kiliçdaroğlu, his unpopular predecessor.

In darkness. Özel has pledged to resist the ruling and fight for what remains of Turkish democracy, even as riot police stormed the CHP headquarters on Sunday and tear-gassed supporters of the party. While hanging off a police van, Özel told the assembled crowd that the party will be “on the streets or in the squares, marching towards power”.

Manchurian candidate. Kiliçdaroğlu’s supporters reportedly instigated the raid, claiming they had been barred entry. The 77-year-old, who has been reinstalled as CHP leader, is a far more palatable opponent for Erdoğan. Erdoğan beat him in a presidential election in 2023.

Nobody wants you. Kiliçdaroğlu’s efforts to regain power have made him more unpopular than ever. A recent poll found that 5% of CHP members want him to remain as leader. Ali Mahir Başarır, a leading official in the party, said that “history will not forgive him”. The move to unseat Özel saw the stock market in Istanbul drop 6.5% before trading was halted.

Sensing a pattern. Ekrem Imamoğlu, the Istanbul mayor and CHP lodestar, has been behind bars for more than a year and is among 400 people on trial, charged with a corruption and bribery scheme tied to his office. Human Rights Watch calls the trial “politically motivated”. CHP members chose Imamoğlu to run against Erdoğan in a symbolic ballot after his arrest.

Dare to win. The years since the 2024 local elections in which the CHP notched up major victories were followed by similar corruption charges that unseated more than 20 opposition mayors and local officials. HRW accused the Turkish authorities of “weaponising the criminal justice system” against the main opposition party.

He would say that. Akin Gürlek, Istanbul’s former chief prosecutor, was promoted to justice minister after bringing charges against Imamoğlu and other CHP officials. He said the ruling that unseated Özel “reinforces our citizens’ trust in democracy”.

Election season. Erdoğan has ruled Turkey since 2003, overseeing its transformation into a presidential system with power concentrated around his office. For him to run for a third term either requires a constitutional amendment or an early election, which may now be imminent.

Tongue tied. Criticism from Brussels, Berlin and London has been muted at best. Özel previously criticised Keir Starmer for failing to support Labour’s sister party, claiming that Erdoğan is getting a free pass because Turkey has the second largest army in Nato.

What’s more…. Erdoğan recently told his cabinet that the EU needs Turkey more than Ankara needs membership of the bloc. When it comes to managing wars in Ukraine and Iran, it is hard to disagree. But the EU has to decide how much its stated values matter in this partnership.

Photograph by Republican People's Party/AFP/Getty Images