Viktor Orbán’s crushing defeat in yesterday’s Hungarian election has raised hopes of a new dawn for democracy and an end to Hungary’s role as an outpost for Russian meddling in the heart of Europe.
So what? It was, at the very least, historic. Jubilant young voters chanted “Russians go home” as partying along the Danube continued until dawn.
Péter Magyar, the new prime minister, is no liberal. But his landslide victory means Hungary can once again become a fully-functioning member of the EU after years of Orbán’s obstruction, rule-breaking and vetoes. His two thirds majority in the National Assembly enables him to change the constitution to unpick years of Orbánisation. That will entail
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rooting out corruption and Russian influence in government;
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a reset relations with Nato, the EU and Ukraine; and
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a blow to populists across Europe.
A result. With almost all votes counted and record turnout, Magyar’s Tisza party is predicted to win 138 of 199 parliamentary seats with Orbán’s Fidesz party trailing on 55 seats.
Who is the new PM? Magyar, 45, trained as a lawyer. Until two years ago he was a high-ranking member of Orbán’s Fidesz party, previously married to Orbán’s justice minister Judit Varga. After their divorce in 2023, she accused him of verbal and physical abuse, claims he dismissed as “propaganda”. He is described by friends as a perfectionist with a short-fuse.
Orban fall-out. Magyar left Fidesz in 2024 after it emerged Orbán, while promoting “traditional family values” and child safeguarding, had pardoned a man convicted of helping to cover up sex abuse at a children’s home. Varga resigned, along with Hungary’s president, Katalin Novák.
Centre right. Magyar is a conservative at heart. He trod a middle-ish path during the election campaign to avoid alienating voters, but is firmly right of centre.
What next? The new PM has bridges to rebuild with the EU. During 16 years in power Orban, 62, an ally of Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, turned Hungary into what he proudly called an “illiberal democracy” and broke core EU rules to the extent Hungary would not be allowed to join the bloc if it applied today.
At home. Magyar’s manifesto promised to address a crisis in health and education systems but was otherwise vague. Like Orbán he is anti-immigration and has promised to end the government’s foreign guest worker programme. The LGBTQ community, targeted by Orbán who banned Budapest Pride last year – it went ahead anyway – will be hoping he halts the erosion of its rights. But Magyar has said little on the subject.
New broom. The new PM will also have to sweep out Orbán’s network of cronies in state, media and judicial offices along with Russian sympathisers suspected of sharing intelligence with Moscow. He has promised to dismantle Orbán’s political system “brick by brick”.
But will he? He said yesterday he would introduce anti-corruption measures from day one, but the European Policy Centre think tank warned that while broadly pro-Europe and promising to rebuild trust with the EU and Nato, Magyar may not make a clean break with Orbán’s policies. “The European Union should manage expectations and prepare for a more complex relationship than a simple post-Orbán reset,” it wrote.
Ukraine uncertainty. Magyar does not support Ukraine’s accelerated accession to the EU and rejects sending arms to Kyiv, but doesn’t share Orbán’s hostility towards Ukraine either. European leaders are keen for Magyar to lift Hungary’s veto of a €90bn loan to Ukraine. Some sources say he has already promised to do so and an EU official who called the vote “a blow to Moscow” said Brussels was “hoping for new momentum to move forward with the loan”.
Money back? Brussels has withheld more than €30bn in loans and support payments because of Orbán’s failure to uphold EU rules on democracy and the rule of law. Magyar is determined to unblock that money in short order. It includes
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a €17bn defence loan
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€10bn in blocked Covid recovery funds and
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€7.6bn in frozen EU ‘cohesion’ grants.
What we learned? Complaining about foreign interference in an election while inviting foreign leaders to interfere is not necessarily a vote-winner. France’s far-right leader Marine Le Pen and the Netherlands’ populist Geert Wilders travelled to Hungary to drum up support for Orbán. The US vice-president JD Vance also flew to Budapest to endorse him days before the vote.
Kiss of death…The result is a setback for Donald Trump, who posted “GET OUT AND VOTE FOR VIKTOR ORBÁN…he is a WINNER…I AM WITH HIM ALL THE WAY”.
Photograph by Jakub Porzycki/Anadolu via Getty Images
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