Zelensky’s White House return was a victory of optics with precious little substance

Volodymyr Zelensky and Europe’s top leaders met with Donald Trump in Washington yesterday to discuss Russia’s peace proposal.

So what? The stakes could not be higher. Trump’s Alaska summit with Putin put Zelensky on the back foot, raising fears that Ukraine could be forced into striking a disadvantageous deal. In Washington, Zelensky and his counterparts pushed Trump on

• a ceasefire;
• a future trilateral summit involving Zelensky; and
• security guarantees for Ukraine to deter future Russian aggression.

Round two. The last time Zelensky stepped into the Oval Office, he was humiliated by Trump who told him he was “gambling with WWIII”. Yesterday it was all smiles as Zelensky thanked the US leader for his support and Trump complimented the Ukrainian president on his suit.

Public displays. Zelensky also gave Trump a letter from his wife for the First Lady Melania, who wrote to Putin last week about the Ukrainian children that have been abducted by Russia.

Rallying around. After their one-on-one meeting, Trump and Zelensky held multilateral talks with leaders from the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Finland and the European Commission, who flew to Washington in a show of support for Ukraine. The Nato chief Mark Rutte also attended.

Flip, flop. Although Trump has spent months threatening Russia with sanctions if it doesn’t halt the fighting, the US president now insists a ceasefire is not necessary to secure a longer-term peace deal. Yesterday France’s Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s Friedrich Merz renewed their calls for a ceasefire, but Trump said “as of this moment, it’s not happening”.

Trilateral promises. Trump did promise security guarantees, which he said Putin had agreed to in Alaska. The burden would mostly be shouldered by Europe, supported by the US. He also said there would be a trilateral summit between himself and the two leaders.

However, there is no indication that Putin will agree to such a meeting and Russia has reportedly balked at the idea of Nato troops securing a peace deal in Ukraine.

Land. The US president also talked of “possible exchanges of territory”, which will concern Ukraine. In Alaska, Russia is said to have put forward a proposal under which

• Ukraine would withdraw from the strategic eastern Donbas region;
• Russia would stop attacks in the southern areas of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia;
• the international community would recognise Russia’s sovereignty over Crimea; and
• Ukraine would be blocked from joining Nato.

Unanswered questions. It is not clear if Trump has agreed to these maximalist terms, but on Sunday he said Zelensky “can end the war with Russia almost immediately” and that Ukraine should give up on reclaiming Crimea and joining Nato.

Bitter pill. Ukraine still controls 2,500 square miles, or 12 per cent, of the Donbas. This includes a fortified line of defences around a string of industrial cities. If these were ceded, a future Russian attack would be much easier. Zelensky has warned repeatedly of this possibility, although Trump yesterday dismissed it as “overrated”.

On a plate. Gaining the Donbas would represent a major victory for Putin, whose troops have struggled to capture the entirety of the region. UK intelligence says it would take Moscow four years and two million casualties to capture Luhansk and Donetsk, which make up the Donbas and had a pre-war population of 6.5 million, as well as Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.

Legality. Ukraine’s constitution rules out changing the country’s borders without a referendum. Most citizens would be likely to vote “no”. A recent poll found 78 per cent oppose transferring territory under Ukrainian control to Russia.

Facing reality. But continued fighting from Kyiv would come at a price. Even though Ukraine has mounted a dogged defence, it is losing ground. It is unlikely to recapture the areas it has lost, especially if Trump cuts military aid again to put pressure on Zelensky.

Compromise. That could open the door to a compromise in which Ukraine accepts Russia’s de facto control over parts of its territory without legally relinquishing any land.

What’s more… Ukraine has floated a $100 billion US arms purchase, to be financed largely by European allies, as part of the emerging peace framework – a sign that Kyiv is still betting on Western security guarantees even as talk of territorial concessions looms.