Pragmatism seems to be the ordre du jour, demonstrated by a willingness in Europe – particularly in Paris, Brussels and Berlin – to move on and work with the UK.
“There are national [political] parties who might be less willing, but, on the whole, most see the mutual benefit,” one European official told The Observer. “But it’s important for Europe to show there is a difference to being in, and being out.”
Keir Starmer, who led calls for a second referendum in the wake of the Brexit vote, has ruled out rejoining the customs union or allowing freedom of movement. Meanwhile, the EU has been rigid in its position that the UK cannot cherry-pick certain benefits.
But the two sides have made moves to repair some of Brexit’s damage. The UK has rejoined the EU’s scientific Horizon programme and the Erasmus+ student exchange scheme. It has agreed to realign with EU rules on food safety, which will deepen agricultural trade. There is talk of improving energy and carbon trading, and of favourable terms for UK exports of steel, chemicals and cars.
“We are a long, long way from having the conversation of an eventual return, but it is time and long overdue for a debate in the UK, since we have all seen what a disaster leaving the EU was,” said Petros Fassoulas, the head of European Movement International, which campaigns for a democratic and enlarged union. “Maybe 2026 will be the time for a national conversation about what went wrong.”
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In any conversation about UK-EU relations, three other countries play an outsized role. America’s threats to cut Europe adrift, China’s economic levers and Russia’s expansionist ambitions have persuaded Brussels and Westminster that greater cooperation is necessary. Diplomats on the continent suggest Britain must decide between relying on its neighbours or on an increasingly untenable “special relationship” with the US. Sandro Gozi, a former Italian minister and now a French MEP, hopes the UK will turn towards Europe. “The consequences of the Trump attitude and policy makes it clear it’s going to be very difficult for the UK to stay in the middle between the EU and US,” he said.
Gozi believes reintegration into Europe will consist of small steps. “Right now there is no request for customs union, freedom of movement or a single market,” he said. “Personally, I hope there will be. But in the meantime it would be beneficial for all, especially the UK, to start to explore what we can do together.” Gozi said it was “impossible” to rethink Europe’s defence and security without the UK.
The mood has also softened in Paris over the past three years. “Brexit was a major disaster, but the UK government is starting to reduce, eliminate and mitigate some of the damage,” said Gozi.
It will not be a smooth path. Britain’s attempt to join Safe, the EU’s flagship €150bn defence scheme, fell through in November after the bloc requested a high fee for participation. The French insisted Britain pay up to €6bn, a suggestion described by Lord Ricketts, chairman of the Lords’ European affairs committee and former ambassador in Paris, as “bonkers”. The UK rejected a €2bn demand. French officials have always played down claims they have sought to punish the UK for Brexit as tabloid populism, and other EU member states are also insisting the UK must “pay to play”.
“Safe didn’t happen, but other things are happening,” said Gozi. “We are examining pragmatically sector by sector to see what it is possible to do and how fast we can go.”
Fassoulas says numerous bilateral talks have taken place between the UK and member states, particularly over security and defence, but that there was “no appetite for an à la carte relationship”.
“My sense speaking to EU officials, NGOs, and others from trade unions and those in the private sector, is there is now a positive mood to the UK joining again. This has become stronger since the invasion of Ukraine and Trump, which has required a new definition to the whole concept of European security.”
French diplomats in Paris are keen to play up a new entente cordiale. Pascal Confavreux, spokesperson for the minister of European and foreign affairs, said that Franco-British relations were experiencing a “revival” and that France was “committed to maintaining and strengthening the dynamism of our bilateral relationship, which is marked by deep ties between our peoples.”
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