‘Starmer is in Liz Truss territory’: mood hardens in No 10 as MPs weigh no confidence vote

‘There are lots of plots but there’s no plan,” says a senior Labour figure. “The consensus in the cabinet and the party is that Keir is not up to it and he has to go, and that he won’t lead Labour into the next general election, but that’s as far as it goes.”

MPs are considering forcing a vote of no confidence in the prime minister. Cabinet ministers are discussing whether they should tell Keir Starmer his time is up. Some are pushing the idea that the Labour leader should make clear that he intends to step down in the autumn, giving Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham a chance to get into parliament. A minister could resign and mount a challenge or a delegation of senior MPs might force the issue.

Those around Starmer know he is in serious trouble and may not survive. One member of the cabinet said the government was in a “deep mess”. Another minister added: “It’s all pretty grim for Keir.”

The prime minister is “in no mood to quit”, however, according to an ally. “He is not going to set out a timetable for his departure. He doesn’t want to be defined by Peter Mandelson’s appointment as ambassador to Washington – something he didn’t really want to do in the first place.”

On Friday, Starmer was holed up at Chequers with his advisers and two of his most trusted ministers, Pat McFadden and Darren Jones, “wargaming” the next few months. Over egg mayonnaise sandwiches on the terrace, he talked through the legislative programme that will be unveiled in the king’s speech on 13 May and policies that could be announced over the summer. “He was clear he will not settle for anything less than ‘big and bold’,” an aide said.

But at the end of another dire week for the government, the mood has hardened against Starmer, including around the cabinet table. Four senior ministers – McFadden, Ed Miliband, Yvette Cooper and Shabana Mahmood – distanced themselves publicly from the prime minister’s decision to fire Olly Robbins as head of the Foreign Office.

MPs describe a sense of “desperation” and “depression” on the Labour benches in the House of Commons. One said: “The mood is shifting; it’s murderous but still no one can agree what comes next. Groundhog Day is an understatement – it’s like waiting for fucking Godot.” A former cabinet minister compared the Mandelson story to “dog poo on your shoe that you can’t get off”. Another Labour source described the past fortnight as “a shitshow that shines a light on the weaknesses that have been apparent for a long time”.

One minister said the situation was now “terminal” for the prime minister and the end could come quickly after the local, Scottish and Welsh elections on 7 May, which are expected to be catastrophic for Labour. “I think it’ll happen straight away – before the king’s speech, even,” the minister said. “I think the cabinet will tell him it’s all over. Someone will move straight away. I think [it will be] Wes [Streeting], but there will be a challenge and not a coronation. Ange[la Rayner] will definitely go and maybe John [Healey] too: he’s sensible, got a cool head, popular – no obvious drama.”

But a Labour peer said the party was in limbo because the factions within it were at odds about who should take over from Starmer. The centrist Wes Streeting’s supporters do not want the more leftwing Angela Rayner as prime minister and vice versa, while Burnham – currently being talked up as the preferred candidate of the soft left – is not even an MP. There is little chance of a pact between the candidates from different wings of the party to avoid a contest.

“Keir can’t turn it around but he could hang on, which is the worst of all worlds,” the peer said. “It’s completely awful. He’s in [Liz] Truss territory for the worst PM. You’re always going to alienate people in politics, but he’s alienated everybody.” The prime minister’s approach to the crisis in Iran – and his willingness to stand up to Donald Trump – was popular with his party and the public, but the “Love Actually bounce” Starmer has been enjoying in the polls has been all but obliterated by the security vetting controversy.

The latest Opinium poll for The Observer found that 57% of people now think Starmer should resign as leader. The prime minister’s net approval rating matches the worst level reached by Boris Johnson during the final weeks of his prime ministership and is worse than the lowest point hit by Rishi Sunak. Only 18% of voters approve of Starmer, while 62% disapprove, a net approval rating of 44% – 5 percentage points down on the previous survey.

Starmer shows visitors to Chequers the stained glass windows that prime ministers traditionally design when they leave office. He points out with amusement the contrast between Tony Blair’s ornate , colourful creation and Gordon Brown’s subdued , monochrome version.

Labour MPs who have been invited to the country residence are more interested in how long it will be before Starmer designs his own window after moving out of No 10.

Photograph by Simon Dawson/No 10 Downing Street