150 Labour MPs ready to rebel against welfare reforms

As many as 150 Labour MPs are threatening to rebel against the government’s welfare reforms next month, raising the prospect of Keir Starmer’s first Commons defeat since becoming prime minister.

Around a dozen people “on payroll” – junior ministers and parliamentary private secretaries (PPSs) – are toying with the idea of resigning, according to sources, following in the footsteps of Vicky Foxcroft, who quit her role as a whip last week.

With a working majority of 165, at least 83 Labour MPs would have to defy the whip for Starmer to lose the vote on the reforms.

Backbenchers said they had been threatened with suspension from the party if they didn’t toe the line, but that was “just not washing”, as several of the new intake were already reconciled to the idea that they might be one-term MPs and wanted to take a principled stand.

“I think there’s every chance it might not pass its second reading,” said one rebel. “It wasn’t in the manifesto. The whole process has been so badly done from a policy-making perspective.”

Kendall and Reeves were seen in the MPs’ tearoom on Friday – usually a sign that ministers are concerned about the mood among backbenchers. “They’re expecting PPS resignations and there was a lot of unhappiness in the tearoom,” said one minister, who is not planning to rebel.

Many would-be rebels are drawn from the increasingly fractious new intake grappling with angry constituents. One member of the 2024 intake said No 10 was wrong to assume they could be easily corralled. “We are not new to politics, we have organised and whipped and been whipped before ... They have underestimated the strength of feeling, and they believe they can just shake us down rather than engage.”

A particular grievance was the lack of movement on a new points system, in which a claimant must score at least four points for activities such as washing themselves or preparing food to be eligible for payments.

Three MPs told The Observer that Liz Kendall, the work and pensions secretary, is lukewarm on this proposal, arguing it is being pushed by Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, and Morgan McSweeney, Starmer’s chief of staff. No 10 denied this.

Backbenchers point to the U-turn on winter fuel payments as a rationale for rebelling. “Everyone is thinking: ‘Why should I sacrifice my principles when they will almost certainly concede further down the line?’ ” said one.

A government spokesperson said: “The broken welfare system we inherited is failing the sick and most vulnerable and holding too many young people back. It is fair and responsible to fix it.

“Our principled reforms will ensure those who can work should, that those who want to work are properly supported, and that those with the most severe disabilities and health conditions are protected.”