Kemi who? Time is running out for Badenoch ahead of Tory conference

“In dozens of focus groups all over the country, not a single person has been able to think of a single thing Kemi Badenoch has said or done since she became leader. The biggest risk for the Tories is that they are drifting to irrelevance.”

As the Conservatives head to their party conference in Manchester this week, Badenoch is struggling to cut through with an electorate increasingly disillusioned by mainstream politics. Nigel Farage is hoovering up attention and last month Danny Kruger became the first sitting Conservative MP to switch to Reform, declaring his old party was “over as the principal opposition to the left”. The Conservatives are averaging 17% in the polls, down from 24% at the general election last year.

To make matters worse, new polling for The Observer suggests that the Tories are failing what political strategists call the “brand contamination test”. An Opinium survey found that the party’s reputation is so toxic that when people are asked what they think of policies they are significantly less likely to support them if they know they are Conservative plans. On five key policies around tax, immigration, education and climate change, there is an average six-point drop in public backing for proposals as soon as they are associated with Badenoch’s party.

“That represents millions of voters with such a negative impression of the values and motives of the Conservative party that they oppose ideas that they would otherwise be in favour of,” says Cooper, who carried out similar research for Cameron in opposition. “The Tories are fundamentally in denial about why they lost.”

There is growing speculation that Badenoch will face a leadership challenge – probably after the local elections next May. Some think it could come as early as December, allowing the party to go into the new year with “fresh blood” at the top. One senior Tory says: “On the record, she’s going to be the leader for ever; off the record she hasn’t got a chance. I haven’t met a Conservative MP who thinks she’s going to still be there by the time of the next election. The only discussion is about how quickly she goes.”

Robert Jenrick, the energetic shadow justice secretary, is the favourite to take over, although he has his critics. One frontbencher says: “I think that losing the leadership contest last year drove him a bit mad.”

James Cleverly, the shadow housing secretary who failed to make the final shortlist in 2024, is said to be actively “working the room” with Tory MPs and donors. Laura Trott, the shadow education secretary, and Katie Lam, a former banker who advised Boris Johnson before being elected as MP for Weald of Kent, are both being discussed as possible future leaders.

There is even chatter that the Conservative party could end up being led by Farage, in a reverse takeover by Reform. “Jenrick is like the gateway drug to Farage,” says one senior Tory. “He becomes leader, you get a tiny bump in popularity, but as you get closer to an election and nothing changes people start to think the only route to an election victory is to join forces. Farage says, ‘fine, but I’m the boss.’”

The former cabinet minister Jacob Rees-Mogg points to the SDP Liberal Alliance in 1983, which saw two parties agreeing not to stand against each other and to govern as a coalition if they won enough seats. “The right needs to unite,” he says. “And you need to present to the country a single person who would be prime minister if you won the election.”

This week, Badenoch will seek to assert her authority with the slogan “stronger economy, stronger borders”. Her allies claim that business leaders, who have lost faith with Labour and are nervous of Reform, are now looking to the Tories. In the first quarter of this year, the Conservatives raised over £5.5m, more than Labour and the Liberal Democrats combined and three times as much as Reform.

The former chief whip Andrew Mitchell says it is far too soon for Tory MPs to be plotting. “I don’t think the Archangel Gabriel would cut through at this point. We lost, we were obliterated. This is our time of humility to earn our way back.”

The former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith says the Conservative party should cease the “back stabbing”. “We think there’s a messiah waiting to deliver us to the promised land and the reality is it’s not like that. You have to watch people and see how they develop.”

Michael Howard, who took over from him at the helm, says: “The Tory party will be around long after Danny Kruger is forgotten because it stands for a set of values which are in tune with the British people.”

Other grandees are more sceptical. Last week Badenoch announced plans to scrap climate change legislation – a conspicuous contrast with Cameron’s slogan to “vote blue, go green”. She also promised to leave the European Convention on Human Rights if the party wins the next general election. David Gauke, the former chief secretary to the Treasury, says the Tories will never succeed if they try to “out-Reform Reform”. “If they carry on as they are there is absolutely no certainty that they will survive. There isn’t space for two parties of the populist right.”

Nicky Morgan, the former culture secretary, agrees that there are “no guarantees” that her party will recover. ”I do wonder whether people inside the Conservative Westminster bubble really understand quite how existential things are. There’s got to be space for a centre right pro-business small-state party, but I don’t hear the current leadership making the case for that.”

Justine Greening, the former education secretary, warns that the Tories are in danger of turning into a “Reform mini-me” that is putting off more moderate and younger voters. At the last election, only 8% of those aged 18-24 voted Conservative and the “crossover age” at which people were more likely to vote Tory was 64.

“That’s existential,” Greening says. “I was at an event recently and two Conservative party members in their 70s came to ask me whether they should renew their membership or join Reform. They said ‘We go to meetings and we’re the youngest people there.’ I think the party is reaching a tipping point.”

Photograph by Carl Court/Getty. Other picture by Dan Kitwood/Getty