Mandelson saga casts shadow over Trump’s UK trip

What had been anticipated as a chance for the Labour government to woo the mercurial leader of the free world on vital topics, from trade and investment to Ukraine, is now viewed with dread on both sides of the Atlantic.

After a week in which Peter Mandelson was forced out of his role as the UK’s ambassador to the US over a cache of leaked emails revealing his sympathies for convicted child sexual abuse offender Jeffrey Epstein, Washington and London still fear more repercussions. For those in the White House, the potential for the scandal to engulf Trump is particularly acute. And, just like many back in Westminster, the saga is making them question Starmer’s judgment.

Despite early misgivings – one of Trump’s election campaign advisers called Lord Mandelson “an absolute moron” – and a reluctance to part with his well-respected predecessor Karen Pierce, Mandelson had won over many sceptics in the administration over the months he was there. Trump even signed a “Great job!” card for the ambassador after an Oval Office photo-op. But now those around Trump are asking why he was sent to the US at all. “This makes you guys look really, really bad,” said one White House source to The Observer.

Among UK business figures, the verdict is that Mandelson’s success navigating Trump’s tariffs was partial and undermined by wider uncertainty. “The way most people see it, it’s less shit than it could have been without him, but that’s not the same as it being good,” said one senior business adviser.

Exactly who will replace Mandelson is yet to be decided, with Pierce tipped for a comeback, alongside speculation about another political appointee, including former Labour foreign secretary David Miliband and ex-Tory chancellor George Osborne. In Mandelson’s place for the state visit will be his former deputy, now acting ambassador, James Roscoe. A career diplomat, Roscoe spent three years working for Queen Elizabeth II – a fact that is appreciated in Washington.

The proximity to the royal family may yet help smooth over some of the ruffles caused by Mandelson’s removal. Trump has a longstanding fascination with the monarchy, seeing his time with the late queen during his first state visit as a highlight.

This time around, the royal red carpet is being well and truly rolled out; on arrival at Windsor Castle, Trump will be greeted with a flypast by the Red Arrows, and UK and US F-35 fighter jets on the east lawn, along with a special beating retreat military ceremony.

King Charles and Queen Camilla will officially meet the Trumps as a royal salute is fired on the east lawn and from the Tower of London, and a guard of honour with three state colours will greet the party. The Princess of Wales will host first lady Melania and the pair will visit a troop of Scouts

In the evening, a state banquet is being laid on for 160 guests, including big names from the business world, thought to include OpenAI’s chief executive Sam Altman and Nvidia’s boss Jensen Huang, as well as members of the royal family, at St George’s Hall, where Charles and Trump will deliver speeches. The Trumps will stay overnight in the castle.

Unlike other world leaders, Trump will not venture beyond the confines of Windsor and Chequers, the prime minister’s grace-and-favour mansion. This is partly a security concern, but organisers are also hoping to avoid any embarrassing protests. Last time, a huge helium balloon depicting Trump as a baby was flown over Parliament Square. “Trump not welcome” protesters will gather in the same place this Wednesday – but the president will be kept far away.

After he is helicoptered into Chequers, the fluffing continues: Trump will be shown a collection of items from the Winston Churchill archives and be part of a reception and fireside chat with key British and American investors, such as GSK, Microsoft and Rolls-Royce. Trump and Starmer will also have a private lunch of dover sole with peas and potatoes followed by key lime pie

Alongside the conflict in Ukraine, the prime minister’s main ambition is to make progress on reducing – or removing – tariffs, says sources, while conceding that this is a tall order. A new digital partnership, and investment from big tech companies, are also expected to be announced. The fact that the US secretary of commerce, Howard Lutnick, and the US treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, plus a business delegation including big tech companies, will be joining Trump is seen as a sign that the US contingent is on the same page.

But with hopes high that the visit would endear Trump towards the UK and reinvigorate the special relationship, it remains unclear how damaging the Mandelson affair may become. Epstein is the spectre at the table at Chequers.

Mandelson’s sacking over his friendship with Epstein – what it reveals about Starmer’s judgment and how it reflects on Trump’s own connections with the convicted sex offender – will be top of the agenda for journalists at a joint press conference expected for Trump’s final afternoon in the UK. After months of British fawning and flattery put Starmer in Trump’s good books, the stability of UK-US ties may hang on whether Trump erupts at an Epstein question and boards Air Force One in a fury.

Photograph by Getty